Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T19:49:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

EF
0xefcf…24a2
crypto · 1114 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$454 -7%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$456 · open +$2
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$57
Realized−$456
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses787 / 319
Open positions6
Markets (closed)1106 / 1114
History coverage29d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day88.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%
Chart Positions 6 History 1106 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9
7 days−$1,360
14 days−$1,210
30 days−$456
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 81¢ 94¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+17%)
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 62¢ 64¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Yes 94¢ 94¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Yes 91¢ 90¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 59¢ 58¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Yes 53¢ 52¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Down 57¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Up 66¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Down 74¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Up 77¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Down 66¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Up 53¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Up 72¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Up 73¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Up 58¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Up 33¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Down 68¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Up 56¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Up 72¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Down 55¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Down 55¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Down 51¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Down 56¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Up 55¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Down 65¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$3 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$2 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$3 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 13 $3 +$5 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 13 $3 +$2 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 13 $3 +$2 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 13 $3 +$2 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 13 $3 +$2 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 13 $3 +$2 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 13 $3 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +29%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 +$3 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 13 $3 +$2 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 13 $4 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 13 $3 +$2 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 13 $3 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +36%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 98% −$449
other 1% −$5
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $3 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $3 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $3 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $3 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $3 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $4 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $3 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $3 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $3 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $3 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $3 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $3 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $3 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $4 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $4 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $3 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $4 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +66%
net ROI/market (all)-12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 466 -48.8% -53.7% 36% 33% -64.1%
≤30d 1106 -3.3% -12.5% 71% 66% -16.3%
≤90d 1106 -3.3% -12.5% 71% 66% -16.3%
all 1106 -3.3% -12.5% 71% 66% -16.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover88.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.5% 66% -16.3%
10% ← realistic here -20.9% 58% -24.3%
15% -28.5% 27% -31.6%
20% -35.5% 6% -38.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $56.67 · official $96.67 · 3500 history records