Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T08:10:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

EF
0xefce…4e4a
sports · 241 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
+$31,060 +11%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$27,050 · open +$5,029
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$64,755
Realized+$27,050
Unrealized+$5,029
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses94 / 109
Whale WR (big bets)57%
Est. fees paid−$1,827
Open positions40
Markets (closed)203 / 241
History coverage63d
Avg bet$1,173
Trades / day50.1
Drawdown67%
Kalshi-fit82%
Chart Positions 40 History 203 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2,845
7 days+$28,385
14 days+$26,750
30 days+$26,024
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 11¢ $4,750 $5,275 +$525 (+11%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $4,760 $4,676 −$84 (-2%)
Spread: United States (-1.5) United States 22¢ 100¢ $1,000 $4,545 +$3,545 (+355%)
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30? Yes 16¢ 38¢ $1,560 $3,656 +$2,096 (+134%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 6¢ 12¢ $1,499 $3,193 +$1,693 (+113%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? No 68¢ 70¢ $3,000 $3,089 +$89 (+3%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? No 25¢ 38¢ $1,852 $2,725 +$872 (+47%)
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Monte 42¢ 100¢ $1,000 $2,381 +$1,381 (+138%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Yes 49¢ 100¢ $1,000 $2,041 +$1,041 (+104%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? No 34¢ 26¢ $2,499 $1,973 −$527 (-21%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? No 47¢ 60¢ $1,500 $1,931 +$431 (+29%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? No 79¢ 100¢ $1,497 $1,886 +$389 (+26%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? No 65¢ 89¢ $1,369 $1,879 +$510 (+37%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? No 71¢ 88¢ $1,500 $1,849 +$349 (+23%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? No 76¢ 84¢ $1,500 $1,648 +$148 (+10%)
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027? No 81¢ 87¢ $1,500 $1,611 +$111 (+7%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? No 84¢ 90¢ $1,501 $1,599 +$98 (+7%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? No 60¢ 62¢ $1,500 $1,557 +$57 (+4%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 81¢ 82¢ $1,500 $1,528 +$28 (+2%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 No 78¢ 78¢ $1,504 $1,503 −$1 (-0%)
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Yes 38¢ 38¢ $1,500 $1,502 +$2 (+0%)
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? No 75¢ 76¢ $1,380 $1,408 +$28 (+2%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? No 92¢ 94¢ $1,223 $1,243 +$20 (+2%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? No 58¢ 46¢ $1,500 $1,203 −$297 (-20%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? No 41¢ 31¢ $1,498 $1,133 −$365 (-24%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 12 $1,000 +$3,545 +354%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $1,000 +$1,381 +138%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 11 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 11 $1,000 +$1,041 +104%
Israel closes its airspace by June 11? Jun 11 $136 −$123 -90%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1,011 −$1,000 -99%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $1,000 +$370 +37%
Valorant: Global Esports vs FULL SENSE (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 10 $1,016 −$1,016 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? Jun 10 $1,074 −$1,074 -100%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $1,012 −$1,012 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 10 $1,500 +$33 +2%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $1,000 +$205 +20%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 09 $1,500 +$867 +58%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $1,500 +$843 +56%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 08 $3,000 +$3,402 +113%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 08 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 08 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 08 $1,500 +$5,530 +369%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $1,500 −$1,499 -100%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 07 $1,339 +$20,892 +1560%
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 05 $1,011 −$1,011 -100%
Map Handicap: FLY (-1.5) vs THUNDER dOWNUNDER (+1.5) Jun 05 $83 −$83 -100%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sinners (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 05 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? Jun 05 $1,500 +$847 +56%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5 Jun 03 $2,687 +$2,313 +86%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs Liquid (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? Jun 02 $3,000 +$124 +4%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $1,500 +$2,983 +199%
Game Handicap: KC (-1.5) vs GIANTX (+1.5) Jun 01 $570 −$570 -100%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31? Jun 01 $998 −$997 -100%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 01 $554 −$54 -10%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 01 $3,000 −$423 -14%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $2,950 −$1,106 -38%
Will Finland win the 2026 IIHF World Championship? Jun 01 $1,014 −$1,014 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Andrey Rublev Jun 01 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $1,036 −$1,026 -99%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $1,161 −$900 -78%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $1,500 −$26 -2%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $278 −$278 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 01 $652 −$652 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $3,000 +$1,006 +34%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 01 $1,500 +$853 +57%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? Jun 01 $3,000 +$2,755 +92%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $558 −$506 -91%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 31 $590 −$209 -35%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 31 $1,500 −$1,232 -82%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 31 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31? May 31 $1,420 −$316 -22%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29? May 31 $1,500 +$317 +21%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 49% +$16,771
sports 32% +$24,322
other 17% −$12,875
finance 2% +$877
crypto 1% +$2,983
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? SELL No 76¢ $2 57m
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? SELL No 76¢ $56 58m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? BUY No 60¢ $1,310 1h
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? SELL No 77¢ $22 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY No 77¢ $1,063 2h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? BUY No 58¢ $0 3h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? BUY No 58¢ $0 3h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? BUY No 58¢ $0 3h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? BUY No 58¢ $0 4h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? BUY No 58¢ $0 4h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? BUY No 58¢ $0 4h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? BUY No 58¢ $179 4h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? BUY No 58¢ $11 4h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY No 79¢ $11 5h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY No 79¢ $431 5h
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? SELL No 77¢ $3 7h
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY No 53¢ $1,000 7h
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY United States 22¢ $160 15h
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY United States 22¢ $0 15h
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY United States 22¢ $19 15h
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY United States 22¢ $1 15h
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY United States 22¢ $27 15h
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY United States 22¢ $1 15h
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY United States 22¢ $1 15h
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY United States 22¢ $1 15h
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY United States 22¢ $0 15h
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY United States 22¢ $35 15h
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY United States 22¢ $3 15h
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY United States 22¢ $0 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-3.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 +86.3% +68.6% 52% 48% +93.4%
≤30d 89 +8.0% -2.3% 44% 33% +10.8%
≤90d 203 +6.6% -3.5% 46% 37% +1.7%
all 203 +6.6% -3.5% 46% 37% +1.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover50.1 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -3.5% 37% +1.7%
10% -12.8% 33% -8.1%
15% ← realistic here -21.2% 30% -16.9%
20% -28.9% 27% -25.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $64,754.62 · official $64,754.45 (match) · 3500 history records