Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:15:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EF 0xefce…3ce7 other 29 markets active 1h ago coverage 152d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$4 (-13%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -25% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%6W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit31%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$4
14 days−$4
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 71% −$4
sports 26% $0
world 3% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-32.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -22.3% -29.7% 26% 26% -24.9%
≤30d 23 -22.3% -29.7% 26% 26% -24.9%
≤90d 23 -22.3% -29.7% 26% 26% -24.9%
all 24 -25.2% -32.3% 25% 25% -27.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -32.3% 25% -27.6%
10% -38.8% 25% -34.6%
15% -44.7% 25% -40.9%
20% -50.1% 21% -46.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 51% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -27% → late -23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×1.95 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

152d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses6 / 18
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions5
Markets (closed)24 / 29
History coverage152d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit31%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 24 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 +$0 (+22%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Over 50¢ 50¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $1 $0 -7%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -78%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 +$2 +226%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 +$3 +250%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 2 Scotland? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Haiti 1 - 2 Scotland? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 $0 -10%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 3 Scotland? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -62%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 2 Morocco? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -74%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $1 +$1 +73%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Qatar O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $2 +$2 +105%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $1 $0 -8%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1 +$1 +130%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1 $0 +44%
US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026? Jan 22 $1 −$1 -93%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 50¢ $1 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 31¢ $1 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 32¢ $1 1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 90¢ $1 1h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes $0 5h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $3 6h
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 23h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 23h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 23h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 23h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 23h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 17¢ $1 29h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 30h
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 30h
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 3 Scotland? SELL Yes $0 30h
Exact Score: Haiti 1 - 2 Scotland? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 33h
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 3 Scotland? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 33h
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 2 Scotland? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 33h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 2 Morocco? SELL Yes $0 33h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $2 34h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 0.5 BUY Over 57¢ $1 41h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Qatar O/U 0.5 BUY Under 61¢ $1 41h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 2 Morocco? BUY Yes $1 41h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $1 41h
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 41h
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 2d
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $1 2d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 27¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.16 · official $5.16 (match) · 55 history records