Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T06:13:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
EF 0xefcd…ef28 crypto 1144 markets active 1h ago coverage 56d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 55d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$696 (+0%) realized +$696 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate69%786W / 358L
Drawdown95%max
Avg bet$123per market
Trades / day38.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$216
7 days−$3,283
14 days−$101
30 days+$564
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$606
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 120 -26.6% -33.5% 68% 8% -25.6%
≤30d 686 -1.1% -10.6% 94% 5% -9.1%
≤90d 1144 -1.2% -10.6% 69% 9% -9.1%
all 1144 -1.2% -10.6% 69% 9% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover38.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.6% 9% -9.1%
10% ← realistic here -19.2% 5% -17.8%
15% -27.0% 3% -25.8%
20% -34.1% 2% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
85% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$27 · ×0.26 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.12 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

56d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$696
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses786 / 358
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1144 / 1144
History coverage56d ⚠
Avg bet$123
Trades / day38.0
Drawdown95%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1144 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 18 $154 +$8 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 18 $191 +$9 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 18 $196 +$4 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 17 $187 +$21 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 17 $162 +$6 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 17 $166 +$36 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 17 $194 +$6 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 17 $187 +$13 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 17 $187 +$19 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 17 $191 +$9 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 17 $51 −$51 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 17 $196 +$4 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 17 $193 +$7 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 17 $178 +$23 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 17 $196 +$4 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 17 $196 +$4 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 17 $106 +$10 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 17 $189 +$11 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 17 $40 +$4 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 17 $196 +$4 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 17 $196 +$4 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 17 $196 +$4 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $146 +$4 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 16 $193 +$7 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $196 +$4 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 16 $196 +$4 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 16 $196 +$4 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 16 $174 +$29 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $194 +$6 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 16 $196 +$4 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 15 $196 +$4 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 15 $196 +$4 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 15 $194 +$6 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 15 $196 +$4 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 14 $196 +$4 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 14 $138 +$5 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $164 +$6 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 14 $194 +$6 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 14 $143 +$57 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $194 +$6 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 14 $162 +$38 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $189 +$11 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 14 $196 +$4 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 13 $149 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 13 $196 +$4 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 13 $189 +$4 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 13 $23 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 13 $9 −$9 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $154 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $191 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $196 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $187 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $162 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $166 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $194 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $187 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $187 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $51 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $191 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $196 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $193 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $178 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $196 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $196 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $106 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $189 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $40 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $196 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $196 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $196 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $146 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $193 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $196 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $196 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $196 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $174 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $194 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $196 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records