Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T02:12:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
EF 0xefcb…1d9f other 47 markets active 2h ago coverage 468d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$9 (+1%) realized +$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate50%23W / 23L
Drawdown24%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$28now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 25% +$1
sports 23% +$3
world 21% +$6
other 20% $0
culture 8% $0
tech 3% −$1
economics 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-8.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 11 +3.8% -6.1% 36% 9% -7.9%
≤90d 11 +3.8% -6.1% 36% 9% -7.9%
all 46 +1.5% -8.1% 50% 7% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.1% 7% -8.8%
10% -16.9% 2% -17.5%
15% -25.0% 2% -25.5%
20% -32.3% 0% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
87% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.52 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.49 per $1 lost it wins $2.49
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

468d coverage
Net worth$28
Realized+$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses23 / 23
Open positions1
Markets (closed)46 / 47
History coverage468d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown24%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 46 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 47¢ 48¢ $28 $28 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 19 $29 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 18 $50 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 26 $108 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $9 +$4 +49%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 26 $15 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 26 $33 −$1 -3%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 25 $7 −$1 -18%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 24 $26 +$2 +9%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 24 $40 +$1 +3%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 21 $4 $0 +2%
Peyton Watson: Points O/U 20.5 Mar 18 $88 −$1 -1%
Will Lê Minh Hưng be the next Prime Minister of Vietnam? Mar 17 $97 $0 +0%
Will Tran Luu Quang be the next Prime Minister of Vietnam? Mar 17 $97 $0 +0%
Jonas Valančiūnas: Assists O/U 2.5 Mar 16 $16 $0 +0%
Jaren Jackson Jr.: Points O/U 21.5 Mar 16 $109 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? Mar 15 $5 −$1 -24%
Will Benicio Del Toro win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Aw Mar 15 $90 $0 -0%
Vince Williams Jr.: Assists O/U 3.5 Mar 14 $17 +$2 +14%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 15 $2 $0 +1%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jul 04 $14 +$1 +6%
Will Charles Maung Bo be the next pope? May 10 $2 $0 +1%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2025? Apr 19 $14 $0 +0%
Will Brad Lander win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City Apr 18 $15 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio be out as Secretary of State in Trump's first 100 day Apr 18 $14 $0 +0%
Will Mark Carney lose his seat? Apr 15 $16 $0 -0%
Will Tommy Fleetwood win The 2025 Masters? Apr 15 $16 $0 +1%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Apr 12 $16 $0 +0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2025 World Series? Apr 11 $13 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk buy TikTok before July? Apr 11 $3 $0 +5%
Will Meta buy TikTok? Apr 11 $13 $0 -0%
Will Trump deport 2,000,000 or more people? Apr 10 $15 $0 +0%
Will Borussia Dortmund win the UEFA Champions League? Apr 08 $1 $0 -6%
Will the Conservative Party win the Canadian election by 6-9%? Apr 07 $15 $0 +0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. be out as Secretary of Health and Human Ser Apr 06 $16 $0 +0%
Will Meta have the top AI model on June 30? Apr 05 $16 −$1 -6%
Will Trump deport 1,750,000-2,000,000 people? Apr 03 $17 $0 +0%
Will 0 justices on South Korea's Constitutional Court vote for Yoon's Apr 03 $16 +$1 +5%
Will Jay-Z settle with his accuser before April? Apr 02 $16 $0 +1%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 30 $13 $0 -0%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2025? Mar 25 $1 $0 +4%
Will the Los Angeles Kings win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 25 $2 $0 +17%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 24 $13 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 625-649 times March 14-21? Mar 22 $14 +$1 +4%
Will Elon tweet 650-674 times March 7-14? Mar 15 $15 $0 +3%
Will Atletico Madrid win La Liga? Mar 09 $14 +$1 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 47¢ $28 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $29 14h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $29 16h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 63¢ $50 36h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 63¢ $50 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 90¢ $5 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 90¢ $5 2d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL No 98¢ $14 24d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL No 98¢ $32 24d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab BUY No 99¢ $45 24d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 16¢ $3 24d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 15¢ $3 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 46¢ $4 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 46¢ $11 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 46¢ $15 24d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 30¢ $32 24d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 31¢ $33 25d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 19¢ $9 25d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 19¢ $2 25d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 11¢ $6 25d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL No 99¢ $42 25d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab BUY No 99¢ $42 25d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL Yes 3¢ $2 26d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY Yes 4¢ $3 26d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 35¢ $23 26d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 35¢ $6 26d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 32¢ $6 26d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 32¢ $20 26d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 63¢ $41 26d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 61¢ $40 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28.50 · official $28.50 (match) · 136 history records