Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T18:45:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
EF 0xefc7…e4d4 sports 78 markets active 1h ago coverage 32d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$32 (+3%) realized +$32 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate55%43W / 35L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day4.9pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$18
7 days+$79
14 days+$143
30 days+$83
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$23
other 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-7.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -1.0% -10.4% 65% 59% +6.3%
≤30d 74 +7.6% -2.6% 58% 55% -1.8%
≤90d 78 +2.4% -7.4% 55% 53% -7.5%
all 78 +2.4% -7.4% 55% 53% -7.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.4% 53% -7.5%
10% -16.2% 47% -16.4%
15% -24.3% 42% -24.5%
20% -31.7% 33% -31.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late +22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$8 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

32d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$32
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses43 / 35
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions0
Markets (closed)78 / 78
History coverage32d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day4.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 78 Trades
no open positions (27 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs TEAM VISION - Game 2 Winner Jun 25 $25 +$8 +32%
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - The International Europ Jun 24 $15 +$10 +66%
Dota 2: Execration vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast A Jun 22 $7 −$7 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 21 $20 +$13 +62%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Dota 2: Enjoy vs Team Bald (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qua Jun 21 $60 +$10 +17%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs OG (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed Qu Jun 21 $20 −$20 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $36 +$21 +57%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $20 +$14 +67%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $55 +$1 +1%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $23 +$11 +46%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $25 +$4 +15%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $100 +$32 +32%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $10 +$15 +145%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $10 −$6 -58%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $1 +$6 +564%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China Jun 18 $10 +$4 +40%
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers (BO3) - The International C Jun 18 $3 $0 -8%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Team Refuser (BO3) - The International China Cl Jun 17 $5 +$5 +101%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $6 +$5 +78%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $21 −$10 -46%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $10 +$1 +12%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $9 −$9 -98%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $10 +$12 +114%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $5 +$12 +234%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $19 +$12 +60%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $5 +$3 +67%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $20 +$11 +55%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $15 +$5 +33%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $10 +$6 +59%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $6 −$6 -98%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $10 +$6 +63%
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $9 +$6 +63%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $16 +$9 +55%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $25 +$5 +18%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $9 −$3 -33%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $10 +$4 +42%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $20 −$20 -99%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $20 +$9 +44%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $5 +$6 +112%
Dota 2: Inner Circle vs Nemiga Gaming (BO3) - The International Europe Jun 12 $16 +$9 +56%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $13 +$3 +23%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $37 −$13 -36%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs TEAM VISION - Game 2 Winner SELL TEAM VISION 100¢ $33 1h
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs TEAM VISION - Game 2 Winner BUY TEAM VISION 75¢ $25 2h
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - The International Europ SELL Virtus.pro 93¢ $25 25h
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - The International Europ BUY Virtus.pro 55¢ $15 26h
Dota 2: Execration vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast A BUY Execration 14¢ $7 3d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $33 4d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 12¢ $5 4d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 61¢ $20 4d
Dota 2: Enjoy vs Team Bald (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qua SELL Enjoy 100¢ $70 4d
Dota 2: Enjoy vs Team Bald (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qua BUY Enjoy 85¢ $60 4d
Dota 2: GLYPH vs OG (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed Qu BUY GLYPH 38¢ $20 4d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner SELL Spirit 100¢ $57 4d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $34 5d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 63¢ $36 5d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 59¢ $20 5d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner SELL FURIA 100¢ $55 5d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner SELL Aurora Gaming 4¢ $0 5d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 90¢ $50 5d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 40¢ $5 5d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 33¢ $10 5d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Vitality 68¢ $23 5d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 65¢ $29 6d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner SELL Spirit 100¢ $132 6d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 55¢ $25 6d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner SELL G2 100¢ $25 6d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 75¢ $100 6d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY G2 40¢ $10 6d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 38¢ $10 6d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner SELL 9z 15¢ $4 6d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 34¢ $10 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 164 history records