Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:20:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
EF 0xefc7…1112 other 30 markets active 1h ago coverage 20d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL −$85 (-2%) realized −$107 · open +$22
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip
Net edge+2%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate76%22W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$144per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit27%portable
Net worth$274now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$57
7 days+$16
14 days−$48
30 days−$90
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 93% −$219
sports 7% +$151
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)+1.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +35.3% +22.4% 81% 62% -9.1%
≤30d 29 +12.5% +1.8% 76% 55% -11.5%
≤90d 29 +12.5% +1.8% 76% 55% -11.5%
all 29 +12.5% +1.8% 76% 55% -11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.8% 55% -11.5%
10% -7.9% 34% -20.0%
15% -16.8% 28% -27.7%
20% -25.0% 17% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late +37% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$30 vs −$106 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$274
Realized−$107
Unrealized+$22
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses22 / 7
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)29 / 30
History coverage20d
Avg bet$144
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit27%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 74¢ 80¢ $252 $274 +$22 (+9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $169 +$85 +50%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $343 −$174 -51%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $173 +$90 +52%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $117 +$56 +48%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $93 +$23 +25%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $464 −$371 -80%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $428 +$36 +8%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $421 +$27 +6%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $367 +$55 +15%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $360 +$4 +1%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $10 +$21 +206%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $36 +$56 +158%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $202 +$84 +42%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $10 +$17 +166%
Will England win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $158 +$27 +17%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $135 +$23 +17%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-08? Jun 09 $128 +$7 +5%
Will France win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $117 +$11 +10%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $100 +$15 +14%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-05? Jun 06 $2 $0 +12%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-04? Jun 05 $2 +$1 +29%
Will France win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $121 −$121 -100%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-01? Jun 02 $19 +$3 +17%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $10 +$9 +93%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs FaZe (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs May 29 $1 −$1 -99%
Indiana Fever vs. Golden State Valkyries May 29 $3 −$3 -99%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Detroit Tigers May 28 $1 $0 +1%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 28 $51 −$50 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 74¢ $254 1h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 66¢ $169 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 39¢ $169 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $80 4h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $263 6h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 65¢ $173 21h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $117 27h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 79¢ $93 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 19¢ $93 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $464 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 97¢ $463 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 93¢ $7 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 93¢ $85 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 93¢ $14 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 93¢ $91 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 93¢ $70 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 93¢ $140 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $20 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 39¢ $20 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $421 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 96¢ $422 4d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 83¢ $367 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 99¢ $360 4d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $10 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $36 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $202 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Knicks 82¢ $27 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 30¢ $10 6d
Will England win on 2026-06-10? BUY Yes 85¢ $158 7d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-09? BUY Yes 85¢ $135 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $273.65 · official $277.04 · 62 history records