Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:44:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EF 0xefbd…8086 other 320 markets active 1h ago coverage 265d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$36,584 (-24%) realized −$36,278 · open −$306
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate41%127W / 184L
Whale WR38%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$473per market
Trades / day5.9pace
Fees−$99est.
Kalshi-fit48%portable
Net worth$1,517now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,339
7 days−$1,456
14 days−$3,373
30 days−$5,122
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% −$9,652
sports 24% −$11,782
crypto 18% −$10,842
world 5% −$4,093
finance 1% −$46
economics 1% +$65
culture 0% −$640
tech 0% +$136
politics 0% −$60
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-19.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -15.0% -23.1% 48% 45% -25.3%
≤30d 43 -21.9% -29.4% 47% 42% -37.6%
≤90d 43 -21.9% -29.4% 47% 42% -37.6%
all 311 -10.5% -19.1% 41% 39% -30.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.1% 39% -30.4%
10% -26.8% 35% -37.1%
15% -33.9% 33% -43.1%
20% -40.4% 29% -48.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -31% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -27% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 38% (≥$577) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -20% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$338 vs −$434 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

265d coverage
Net worth$1,517
Realized−$36,278
Unrealized−$306
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses127 / 184
Whale WR (big bets)38%
Est. fees paid−$99
Open positions9
Markets (closed)311 / 320
History coverage265d
Avg bet$473
Trades / day5.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit48%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 311 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $950 $825 −$125 (-13%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $150 $175 +$25 (+17%)
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Portugal 44¢ 34¢ $189 $148 −$41 (-22%)
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Yes 55¢ 45¢ $165 $135 −$30 (-18%)
Will Africa (CAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $84 $115 +$31 (+37%)
Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $160 $42 −$118 (-74%)
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $49 $40 −$8 (-17%)
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals Yes 22¢ 12¢ $44 $25 −$19 (-43%)
Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals Yes $32 $12 −$21 (-65%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 147 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $229 +$271 +119%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $143 −$141 -99%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $1,296 +$59 +4%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $94 −$93 -99%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 16 $45 −$44 -98%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $90 −$88 -99%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 16 $299 −$295 -99%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 16 $490 −$70 -14%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $328 −$324 -99%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $234 −$230 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $388 −$384 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $191 −$189 -99%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $389 −$383 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $382 +$279 +73%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $264 +$236 +90%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $316 +$284 +90%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $402 +$278 +69%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $181 +$151 +84%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $520 −$513 -99%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $131 +$69 +52%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $129 +$71 +55%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 13 $252 +$40 +16%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $57 −$57 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $141 +$159 +113%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $143 +$157 +109%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $102 −$100 -98%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $208 +$136 +65%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 12 $117 +$33 +28%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $755 −$751 -100%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 1 Czechia? Jun 12 $53 −$53 -100%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 10 $45 +$37 +82%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 10 $53 +$18 +34%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 07 $2,135 −$1,529 -72%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 06 $252 −$249 -99%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 06 $8 −$8 -98%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 06 $152 −$150 -98%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? Jun 01 $1,314 −$1,314 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $134 +$15 +11%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 3.5 May 31 $495 +$227 +46%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 May 31 $1,117 +$688 +62%
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5) May 30 $389 −$380 -98%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? May 29 $720 +$15 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 29 $2,400 −$1,000 -42%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-02-12? Feb 12 $1,498 −$1,498 -100%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC vs. Crystal Palace FC end in a draw? Feb 08 $188 −$188 -100%
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-02-07? Feb 07 $164 +$25 +15%
Manchester United FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: O/U 2.5 Feb 07 $84 +$77 +92%
Fulham FC vs. Everton FC: O/U 2.5 Feb 07 $306 −$306 -100%
Wolverhampton Wanderers FC vs. Chelsea FC: O/U 3.5 Feb 07 $207 −$207 -100%
Arsenal FC vs. Sunderland AFC: O/U 2.5 Feb 07 $392 −$392 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 44¢ $192 30m
Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals BUY Yes $33 1h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals BUY Yes 22¢ $45 1h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 55¢ $167 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 50¢ $5 12h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 50¢ $138 12h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 45¢ $229 13h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $641 13h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 64¢ $94 25h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Iraq 42¢ $45 25h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY Senegal 59¢ $90 25h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Algeria 59¢ $299 25h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 42¢ $420 26h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $328 47h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $234 47h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $388 47h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 63¢ $191 2d
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 38¢ $340 2d
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 38¢ $49 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 83¢ $330 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 83¢ $330 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 47¢ $382 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 49¢ $480 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 49¢ $10 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Under 59¢ $354 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Under 59¢ $48 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 52¢ $316 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $264 2d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) SELL Germany 95¢ $332 2d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $714 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,517.34 · official $1,517.38 (match) · 1672 history records