Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T23:38:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
EF 0xefb9…4383 crypto 28 markets active 1h ago coverage 85d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$80 (+11%) realized +$76 · open +$4
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate44%8W / 10L
Drawdown62%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$413now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 41% +$86
world 30% −$19
other 13% −$4
politics 9% +$5
sports 7% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-3.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 2 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 18 +6.5% -3.6% 44% 39% +7.5%
all 18 +6.5% -3.6% 44% 39% +7.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.6% 39% +7.5%
10% -12.9% 39% -2.8%
15% -21.3% 28% -12.2%
20% -29.0% 22% -20.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 66% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +19% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$4 · ×3.06 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.45 per $1 lost it wins $2.45
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

85d coverage
Net worth$413
Realized+$76
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses8 / 10
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions10
Markets (closed)18 / 28
History coverage85d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown62%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 18 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Apr 07 $1 +$4 +423%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Apr 06 $86 +$31 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Apr 06 $110 +$37 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Apr 06 $77 +$19 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Apr 06 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Apr 06 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Apr 06 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Apr 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Apr 06 $1 +$1 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Apr 06 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Apr 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Apr 05 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Apr 05 $1 −$1 -100%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Apr 05 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Apr 05 $4 +$8 +193%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Apr 05 $1 +$3 +329%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $45 1h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 43¢ $5 1h
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap BUY Yes 77¢ $40 1h
Will the announcers say "Assist" during the Brazil vs Haiti FIFA World BUY Yes 82¢ $50 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? BUY No 49¢ $5 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $150 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $26 24h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 79¢ $20 25h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 2d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 10d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 10d
Will Kash Patel leave the Trump administration before 2027? BUY Yes 61¢ $15 73d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. leave the Trump administration before 2027? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 73d
Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027? BUY Yes 38¢ $10 73d
Will Kash Patel leave the Trump administration before 2027? BUY Yes 61¢ $13 73d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. leave the Trump administration before 2027? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 73d
Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027? BUY Yes 38¢ $5 73d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $1 74d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $100 74d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $10 74d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $86 74d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $10 74d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $77 74d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $1 74d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $2 74d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2 74d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 74d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 74d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $5 74d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $1 74d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $412.82 · official $412.82 (match) · 64 history records