Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T11:50:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

EF
0xefb6…223c
other · 41 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$71 -38%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$71 · open −$2
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$14
Realized−$71
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses6 / 23
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions12
Markets (closed)29 / 41
History coverage15d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day4.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit39%
Chart Positions 12 History 29 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days−$71
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-16%)
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+17%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Japan? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 1 Ecuador? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 1 Japan? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 0 Ecuador? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-12%)
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-17%)
Will Iran Play in the World Cup? No 1¢ 0¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-64%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-30%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? Yes 18¢ 0¢ $49 $0 −$49 (-100%)
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Yes 17¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 3 Morocco? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Up 17¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Exact Score: Qatar 2 - 1 Switzerland? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? Yes 15¢ 0¢ $24 $0 −$24 (-100%)
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 2 Morocco? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 3 Morocco? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score in First Half Yes 12¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 1 Morocco? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Qatar leading at halftime? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Qatar O/U 1.5 Over 7¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 1 Scotland? Jun 14 $10 +$9 +90%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $16 −$12 -74%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 13 $5 +$10 +188%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 3 Morocco? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 13 $14 −$12 -84%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 13 $8 −$8 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -94%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 -16%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$2 +178%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 2 Morocco? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 3 Morocco? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 2 Morocco? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 2 Morocco? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 1 Morocco? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 1 Switzerland? Jun 13 $2 +$31 +1519%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $2 +$13 +649%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Qatar O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Qatar 2 - 1 Switzerland? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Qatar leading at halftime? Jun 13 $4 −$3 -97%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Qatar 2 - 0 Switzerland? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $24 −$24 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $50 −$49 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 72% −$66
crypto 18% −$22
sports 8% +$16
world 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 0 Ecuador? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 59m
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 1 Ecuador? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 59m
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 1h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 1h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 1 Scotland? BUY Yes 52¢ $10 9h
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 9h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 11h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 11h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 77¢ $0 11h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 77¢ $15 11h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 16¢ $4 11h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 3 Morocco? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET SELL Up 8¢ $2 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $14 13h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 13h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $1 13h
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $1 13h
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $1 13h
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $1 13h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $1 13h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $1 13h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $1 13h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $1 13h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $1 13h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $1 13h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET SELL Up 26¢ $1 13h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $1 13h
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET SELL Down 2¢ $1 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)+4.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 +24.4% +12.5% 22% 22% +4.8%
≤30d 29 +15.8% +4.8% 21% 21% -45.1%
≤90d 29 +15.8% +4.8% 21% 21% -45.1%
all 29 +15.8% +4.8% 21% 21% -45.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover4.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +4.8% 21% -45.1%
10% -5.2% 21% -50.3%
15% -14.4% 21% -55.1%
20% -22.8% 17% -59.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13.59 · official $13.59 (match) · 69 history records