Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T14:44:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
EF 0xefb5…09cd weather 72 markets active 5d ago coverage 458d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$30 (+0%) realized +$31 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate83%59W / 12L
Drawdown54%max
Avg bet$86per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 83% +$6
sports 17% +$25
other 1% −$2
tech 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-6.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -52.9% -57.4% 0% 0% -57.4%
≤30d 3 -35.2% -41.4% 33% 0% -10.5%
≤90d 34 -3.0% -12.2% 94% 0% -9.4%
all 71 +3.5% -6.4% 83% 15% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.4% 15% -9.1%
10% -15.3% 15% -17.8%
15% -23.5% 14% -25.7%
20% -31.0% 11% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
81% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$4 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.68 per $1 lost it wins $1.68
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

458d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$31
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses59 / 12
Open positions1
Markets (closed)71 / 72
History coverage458d
Avg bet$86
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown54%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 71 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$1 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $2 −$1 -53%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -53%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 69°F or below on May May 21 $140 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 56-57°F on May 15? May 15 $139 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 45°F or below on May 13? May 13 $139 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 50-51°F on May 10? May 11 $141 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 25°C on May 9? May 09 $139 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 53°F or below on May 8? May 08 $140 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be 63°F or below on May 7? May 07 $140 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 20°C or higher on May 5? May 06 $140 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 41°F or below on May 5? May 05 $141 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 30°C on May 4? May 04 $139 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 51°F or below on May 1? May 03 $140 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 74-75°F on April 25? Apr 26 $138 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on April 22? Apr 23 $140 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 22°C on April 22? Apr 22 $139 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on April 17? Apr 17 $139 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 55°F or below on April Apr 14 $140 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 60-61°F on April 13 Apr 13 $138 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 16°C or below on April 11? Apr 11 $139 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C or below on April 1 Apr 09 $138 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 11°C on April 8? Apr 08 $137 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on April 7? Apr 06 $137 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 63°F or below on April 3? Apr 03 $137 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 66-67°F on April 2? Apr 02 $137 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 70-71°F on April 1? Apr 01 $137 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C or below on March 2 Mar 27 $137 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be 71°F or below on March 26? Mar 26 $137 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 39°F or below on March 25? Mar 25 $137 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 3°C or below on March 24? Mar 24 $136 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 65°F or below on March 23? Mar 23 $137 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 9°C on March 22? Mar 22 $137 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 5°C on March 20? Mar 21 $136 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 4°C on March 19? Mar 19 $135 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C or below on March 1 Mar 15 $135 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 4°C or below on March 13? Mar 13 $137 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 63°F or below on March 10? Mar 10 $136 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 65°F or below on March 6? Mar 07 $12 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 39°F or below on March 5? Mar 05 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 52-53°F on March 3? Mar 04 $112 $0 +0%
Will MetaMask launch a token in 2025? Jan 02 $22 $0 +0%
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $310 end of November? Dec 02 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 65°F or higher on Oct Oct 23 $4 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 69°F or higher on October 8? Oct 09 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Se Sep 21 $6 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 79-80°F on August 26 Sep 07 $9 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 82°F or higher on Aug Aug 24 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Au Aug 13 $6 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $125K in July? Aug 07 $5 $0 +0%
Will the New York Jets win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 11 $6 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 4d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 5d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 5d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 5d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 5d
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 6d
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 6d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 69°F or below on May BUY No 100¢ $140 29d
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 56-57°F on May 15? BUY No 100¢ $139 33d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 45°F or below on May 13? BUY No 100¢ $139 34d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 50-51°F on May 10? BUY No 100¢ $141 37d
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 25°C on May 9? BUY No 100¢ $139 38d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 53°F or below on May 8? BUY No 100¢ $140 39d
Will the highest temperature in Houston be 63°F or below on May 7? BUY No 100¢ $140 40d
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 20°C or higher on May 5? BUY No 100¢ $140 41d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 41°F or below on May 5? BUY No 100¢ $141 42d
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 30°C on May 4? BUY No 100¢ $139 43d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 51°F or below on May 1? BUY No 100¢ $140 47d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 74-75°F on April 25? BUY No 100¢ $138 52d
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on April 22? BUY No 100¢ $140 54d
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 22°C on April 22? BUY No 100¢ $139 55d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on April 17? BUY No 100¢ $139 61d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 55°F or below on April BUY No 100¢ $140 63d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 60-61°F on April 13 BUY No 100¢ $138 64d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 16°C or below on April 11? BUY No 100¢ $139 67d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C or below on April 1 BUY No 100¢ $138 68d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 11°C on April 8? BUY No 100¢ $137 69d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on April 7? BUY No 100¢ $137 71d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 63°F or below on April 3? BUY No 100¢ $137 74d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 66-67°F on April 2? BUY No 100¢ $137 75d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.55 · official $0.55 (match) · 147 history records