Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T21:56:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
EF 0xefb2…356f crypto 18 markets active 0h ago coverage 161d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
Total PnL +$509 (+158%) realized +$496 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%4W / 12L
Drawdown6%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$496
7 days+$496
14 days+$496
30 days+$496
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 77% +$509
crypto 23% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-23.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -15.0% -23.1% 25% 25% +135.5%
≤30d 16 -15.0% -23.1% 25% 25% +135.5%
≤90d 16 -15.0% -23.1% 25% 25% +135.5%
all 16 -15.0% -23.1% 25% 25% +135.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.1% 25% +135.5%
10% -30.5% 25% +113.0%
15% -37.2% 25% +92.4%
20% -43.3% 25% +73.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 94% · top 2 97% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +160% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt +160% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -27% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$135 vs −$4 · ×36.5 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×12.17 per $1 lost it wins $12.17
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

161d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized+$496
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses4 / 12
Open positions2
Markets (closed)16 / 18
History coverage161d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown6%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Down 0¢ 57¢ $0 $6 +$6 (+0%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Down 28¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-98%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Down 36¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Down 6¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Down 7¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Down 47¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Down 26¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Down 3¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Down 4¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Down 38¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$16 +296%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$15 +280%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +126%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$5 -48%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? Jun 14 $248 +$509 +205%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $5 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $5 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $5 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $5 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $5 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $1 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $1 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $5 1h
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? BUY Yes 32¢ $150 159d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? BUY Yes 34¢ $94 160d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? BUY Yes 34¢ $1 160d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? BUY Yes 34¢ $3 160d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.62 · official $9.40 · 37 history records