Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T22:21:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EF 0xefae…da53 politics 61 markets active 2h ago coverage 240d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$7 (-0%) realized −$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate16%10W / 51L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$75per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 37% −$3
sports 34% −$3
other 17% −$2
culture 6% $0
crypto 2% $0
economics 2% $0
world 2% $0
finance 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-15.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -7.1% -15.9% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 6 -9.8% -18.4% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 7 -8.4% -17.1% 14% 0% -9.7%
all 61 -6.0% -15.0% 16% 2% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.0% 2% -9.7%
10% -23.1% 2% -18.3%
15% -30.5% 2% -26.2%
20% -37.3% 2% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 58% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.17 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

240d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)16%
Wins / losses10 / 51
Open positions0
Markets (closed)61 / 61
History coverage240d
Avg bet$75
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 61 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 26 $1 $0 -21%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 26 $80 $0 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $80 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $1 $0 -37%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $82 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 28 $82 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 12 $83 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 27 $84 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 202 Feb 14 $81 $0 +0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 14 $1 +$1 +57%
Will Bournemouth win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Feb 11 $78 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? Feb 06 $82 $0 +0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 28 $81 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in January? Jan 27 $1 $0 -25%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 27 $79 $0 -0%
Will Netflix say "Warner Bros" during earnings call? Jan 25 $80 $0 +0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 24 $92 $0 -0%
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 21 $82 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 19 $83 $0 +0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 18 $166 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 15 $80 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 14 $81 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from January 10 to January 12, 2026? Jan 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Slavia Pragu win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 12 $1 $0 -50%
Will Espanyol win the 2025–26 La Liga? Jan 12 $83 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 10 $1 $0 -17%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 10 $81 $0 -0%
Will Ajax win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 09 $83 $0 -0%
Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jan 07 $82 $0 +0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 05 $2 $0 -17%
Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 04 $88 −$1 -1%
Will Crystal Palace win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 04 $84 $0 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 02 $84 $0 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 01 $3 $0 -14%
Will West Ham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 31 $1 $0 -50%
Will Everton win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 31 $165 $0 -0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 29 $173 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 27 $85 $0 -0%
Will Sporting win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 25 $83 $0 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 24 $1 $0 -20%
Wicked vs Avatar: Bigger Domestic Opening Weekend? Dec 23 $84 $0 +0%
Will Brighton win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 20 $85 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 17 $87 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 15 $87 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 13 $87 $0 +0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 11 $84 $0 -0%
Will Superman be the top grossing movie of 2025? Dec 08 $173 $0 -0%
Will Monaco win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 06 $88 $0 -0%
Will Napoli win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 02 $86 $0 -0%
Kinetiq FDV above $50M one day after launch? Nov 29 $85 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $80 1h
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $80 2d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 2d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 4d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $80 4d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $80 24d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 26d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $82 26d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $82 28d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 28d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 29d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $81 29d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $82 32d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $83 45d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $83 115d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $83 119d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $83 127d
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 132d
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 202 BUY No 100¢ $81 134d
Will Bournemouth win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL No 100¢ $78 135d
Will Bournemouth win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY No 100¢ $78 138d
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 138d
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 145d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $82 146d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $81 149d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $81 149d
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in January? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 150d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $79 150d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 100¢ $79 151d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 289 history records