trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | 5 | -2.7% | -12.0% | 60% | 60% | -31.5% |
| ≤90d | 15 | -20.8% | -28.3% | 47% | 47% | -9.6% |
| all | 20 | -4.2% | -13.4% | 55% | 50% | -9.5% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -13.4% | 50% | -9.5% |
| 10% | -21.6% | 40% | -18.2% |
| 15% | -29.2% | 30% | -26.1% |
| 20% | -36.2% | 25% | -33.3% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | No | 50¢ | 77¢ | $76 | $117 | +$41 (+53%) |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | 50¢ | 23¢ | $76 | $36 | −$41 (-53%) |
| Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? | Yes | 62¢ | 62¢ | $1 | $1 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Knicks vs. Spurs | Jun 05 | $3 | −$3 | -99% |
| Ethereum Up or Down on May 27? | Jun 01 | $2 | +$1 | +60% |
| Knicks vs. Spurs | Jun 01 | $1 | −$1 | -99% |
| Cavaliers vs. Pistons | May 27 | $1 | +$1 | +62% |
| Pistons vs. Cavaliers | May 27 | $1 | +$1 | +65% |
| Hawks vs. Knicks | May 06 | $1 | +$1 | +44% |
| Cavaliers vs. Raptors | Apr 23 | $1 | −$1 | -99% |
| Ethereum Up or Down on March 27? | Apr 09 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down on March 26? | Apr 09 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Ethereum Up or Down on April 1? | Apr 09 | $1 | $0 | +22% |
| Solana Up or Down on March 30? | Apr 01 | $1 | $0 | +12% |
| XRP Up or Down on March 24? | Mar 25 | $5,436 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? | Mar 24 | $5,087 | $0 | -0% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down on February 9? | Mar 19 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| XRP Up or Down on March 17? | Mar 19 | $1 | $0 | +24% |
| XRP Up or Down on March 16? | Mar 17 | $2 | $0 | +4% |
| XRP Up or Down on March 10? | Mar 16 | $1 | $0 | +30% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down on February 4? | Feb 09 | $2 | +$2 | +104% |
| Ethereum Up or Down on February 2? | Feb 04 | $3 | +$2 | +89% |
| Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Jan 19 | $14 | $0 | -0% |