Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T14:03:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

EF
0xefac…c9a1
other · 531 markets active 0h ago
1.5score
+$24,451 +15%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$13,524 · open +$8,796
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$155,556
Realized+$13,524
Unrealized+$8,796
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses90 / 69
Whale WR (big bets)54%
Est. fees paid−$556
Open positions500
Markets (closed)159 / 531
History coverage6d
Avg bet$298
Trades / day600.0
Drawdown35%
Kalshi-fit46%
Chart Positions 500 History 159 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$16,195
7 days+$13,524
14 days+$13,524
30 days+$13,524
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 94¢ 96¢ $20,698 $21,132 +$434 (+2%)
Will Brad Raffensperger win the 2026 Georgia Governor Republican primary election? No 88¢ 100¢ $8,396 $9,552 +$1,156 (+14%)
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 92¢ 92¢ $6,900 $6,862 −$38 (-1%)
Will Ghana reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 85¢ 86¢ $6,375 $6,412 +$38 (+1%)
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Sri Lanka England 88¢ 88¢ $6,071 $6,017 −$54 (-1%)
Will Mexico reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 54¢ 62¢ $4,045 $4,612 +$568 (+14%)
Will Alan Wilson win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election? Yes 11¢ 43¢ $1,150 $4,408 +$3,258 (+283%)
Will England reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 64¢ 66¢ $3,403 $3,483 +$79 (+2%)
Will Saudi Arabia reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 91¢ 92¢ $2,896 $2,943 +$48 (+2%)
Knicks vs. Spurs Knicks 36¢ 36¢ $2,690 $2,651 −$39 (-1%)
Will Barry Moore be the Republican nominee for Senate in Alabama? Yes 82¢ 76¢ $2,469 $2,295 −$174 (-7%)
Will Argentina be the furthest advancing CONMEBOL nation at the World Cup? No 61¢ 60¢ $2,132 $2,063 −$69 (-3%)
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot? Yes 74¢ 69¢ $2,147 $2,003 −$144 (-7%)
Will Jackson Lahmeyer be the Republican nominee for OK-01? Yes 75¢ 88¢ $1,680 $1,983 +$303 (+18%)
Will Switzerland be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup? No 93¢ 93¢ $1,904 $1,914 +$9 (+0%)
Will Ben McAdams be the Democratic nominee for UT-01? Yes 75¢ 85¢ $1,464 $1,650 +$186 (+13%)
Will Warsh say "Trump" during June Press Conference? No 83¢ 81¢ $1,621 $1,586 −$35 (-2%)
Will Charles McCall win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary election? No 90¢ 99¢ $1,413 $1,561 +$149 (+11%)
Will Harry Kane win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 91¢ 94¢ $1,202 $1,245 +$43 (+4%)
Will Spain reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 43¢ 46¢ $1,152 $1,233 +$80 (+7%)
Will Jared Hudson be the Republican nominee for Senate in Alabama? Yes 21¢ 23¢ $1,128 $1,218 +$90 (+8%)
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 89¢ 100¢ $1,085 $1,212 +$127 (+12%)
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 30¢ 34¢ $1,036 $1,208 +$172 (+17%)
Will Ivory Coast reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 69¢ 62¢ $1,304 $1,175 −$129 (-10%)
Will France be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup? No 82¢ 82¢ $1,105 $1,113 +$8 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? Jun 12 $128 +$1 +1%
Will Bosnia & Herzegovina be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the Worl Jun 12 $11 −$6 -53%
Will Brooks Koepka finish in the Top 20 at the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? Jun 12 $31 −$2 -8%
Will Brazil be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup? Jun 12 $9 $0 -2%
Will Austria be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup? Jun 12 $49 +$2 +4%
Will Michael Olise be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $268 −$1 -0%
Will Morocco reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $70 +$3 +4%
Will Haiti be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Jun 12 $5 +$1 +17%
Will "Phoebe Bridgers" be featured on Olivia Rodrigo's new album? Jun 12 $93 +$86 +92%
Will Mexico reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $31 −$2 -8%
Will Iran be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? Jun 12 $22 +$1 +4%
Will Panama be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Jun 12 $2 +$1 +24%
Will Egypt be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Jun 12 $2 $0 +5%
Will "Office Romance" be the top US Netflix movie this week? Jun 12 $25 −$17 -70%
Will Mexico be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Jun 12 $4 −$2 -50%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 12 $24,214 +$5,977 +25%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu attend UFC Freedom 250? Jun 12 $53 +$1 +2%
Will Ecuador reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $5 +$9 +181%
Will Elon Musk attend UFC Freedom 250? Jun 12 $5 −$2 -44%
Will Mexico be the furthest advancing host nation at the World Cup? Jun 12 $162 −$15 -9%
Will Nikita Kucherov win the 2025–2026 NHL Hart Memorial Trophy? Jun 12 $1,033 +$7,447 +721%
Will Canada be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? Jun 12 $30 −$1 -4%
Will "The Four Seasons: Season 2" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? Jun 11 $8 $0 -4%
Will Connor McDavid win the 2025–2026 NHL Hart Memorial Trophy? Jun 11 $89 +$926 +1042%
Will Nathan MacKinnon win the 2025–2026 NHL Hart Memorial Trophy? Jun 11 $93 −$72 -77%
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 11 $13 +$1 +5%
Will Tiffany Burress be the Republican nominee for NJ-09? Jun 11 $3 −$2 -60%
Will "Michael Jackson: The Verdict" be the #2 global Netflix show this Jun 11 $16 −$14 -84%
Will South Africa reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $75 +$13 +17%
LoL: Partizan Sangal vs WLGaming Esports (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group C Jun 11 $3 +$13 +498%
Will Cristiano Ronaldo win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $20 −$4 -22%
KBO: Samsung Lions vs. KT Wiz Jun 11 $6 +$4 +65%
KBO: Kia Tigers vs. Hanwha Eagles Jun 11 $6 +$21 +325%
Will Derek Jeter attend Game 4 of the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $10 $0 +3%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $2,014 +$1,528 +76%
LoL: Weibo Gaming Youth Team vs Saigon Warriors (BO3) - Asia Masters G Jun 11 $7 +$1 +18%
Will Bolivia vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 11 $397 +$68 +17%
Will Qatar finish last in Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Sta Jun 11 $5 +$4 +71%
Will "Michael Jackson: The Verdict" be the #2 US Netflix show this wee Jun 10 $20 −$1 -5%
Will Argentina be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Jun 10 $25 +$5 +21%
Will Portugal vs. Nigeria end in a draw? Jun 10 $409 +$78 +19%
Will Global Esports win Valorant Masters London 2026? Jun 10 $14 −$12 -82%
Will Joe Baldacci be the Democratic nominee for ME-02? Jun 10 $3 +$146 +4935%
Will Senegal reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $2 +$10 +517%
Will Bolivia win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $4 +$1 +26%
Will Starmer say "Trump" during the next Prime Minister's Questions ev Jun 10 $112 +$17 +15%
Will Starmer say "Ukraine" during the next Prime Minister's Questions Jun 10 $119 +$186 +156%
Will Mark Smith be the Republican Nominee for SC-01? Jun 10 $9 +$40 +436%
ITF Madrid: Claudia Ferrer Perez vs Paula Cembranos Jun 10 $127 +$27 +21%
ITF Hurghada: Aliesia Reva vs Ashleigh Harvey Jun 10 $1,105 −$125 -11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 48% +$3,394
politics 29% +$10,581
sports 19% +$7,419
world 2% +$825
crypto 1% +$71
culture 0% −$117
economics 0% +$148
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Switzerland be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? SELL Yes 39¢ $8 0m
Will Gavin McKenna be drafted 1st overall in the 2026 NHL Draft? BUY No 7¢ $1 2m
Will Switzerland be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? SELL Yes 39¢ $8 3m
Will Japan reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 76¢ $15 11m
Will Harry Dunn be the Democratic nominee for MD-05? SELL No 86¢ $5 14m
Will South Korea be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? BUY No 44¢ $9 28m
Will Leviatán win Valorant Masters London 2026? BUY No 91¢ $6 30m
Will Brazil be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? BUY No 77¢ $18 33m
Will Paraguay be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? BUY No 60¢ $30 40m
Will Netherlands be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup? BUY No 85¢ $43 41m
Will Leviatán win Valorant Masters London 2026? BUY No 91¢ $13 46m
Will Portugal be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? BUY No 75¢ $15 49m
Will Ecuador be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? BUY No 87¢ $5 49m
Will Bosnia & Herzegovina be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the Worl BUY No 78¢ $6 50m
Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin in June? SELL Yes 42¢ $5 50m
Will Croatia be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? BUY No 67¢ $6 51m
Will Brooks Koepka finish in the Top 20 at the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? BUY No 24¢ $0 53m
Will Kimi Antonelli get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand P BUY Yes 43¢ $4 54m
Will Jordan Pickford win the Golden Glove at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 56m
Will Jordan Pickford win the Golden Glove at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 57m
Will Türkiye be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? BUY No 85¢ $38 58m
Will Jordan Pickford win the Golden Glove at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 58m
Will Belgium win the Fair Play Award for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 83¢ $44 1h
Will Brooks Koepka finish in the Top 20 at the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? SELL Yes 63¢ $29 1h
Will South Korea be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? SELL Yes 37¢ $3 1h
Will Jackson Lahmeyer be the Republican nominee for OK-01? BUY Yes 84¢ $7 1h
Will Guillermo Ochoa win the Golden Glove at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $7 1h
Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin in June? SELL Yes 42¢ $2 1h
Will Sweden be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? BUY No 58¢ $3 1h
Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin in June? SELL Yes 41¢ $4 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)+75.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 159 +94.0% +75.5% 57% 43% +16.2%
≤30d 159 +94.0% +75.5% 57% 43% +16.2%
≤90d 159 +94.0% +75.5% 57% 43% +16.2%
all 159 +94.0% +75.5% 57% 43% +16.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover600.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +75.5% 43% +16.2%
10% ← realistic here +58.7% 31% +5.1%
15% +43.4% 27% -5.1%
20% +29.3% 25% -14.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $155,556.35 · official $155,975.83 (match) · 3500 history records