Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:45:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EF 0xefa4…5c4b politics 67 markets active 1d ago coverage 51d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$27 (-18%) realized −$27 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate13%8W / 55L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$24
14 days−$20
30 days+$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 38% −$24
politics 29% −$34
other 19% −$4
finance 7% −$2
world 6% +$35
tech 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-21.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -41.5% -47.0% 20% 7% -45.9%
≤30d 34 +39.2% +25.9% 21% 15% -13.5%
≤90d 63 -13.1% -21.4% 13% 10% -36.5%
all 63 -13.1% -21.4% 13% 10% -36.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.4% 10% -36.5%
10% -28.9% 10% -42.5%
15% -35.8% 6% -48.1%
20% -42.1% 6% -53.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 73% · top 2 83% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -62% → late +34% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$1 · ×4.11 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

51d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized−$27
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)13%
Wins / losses8 / 55
Open positions4
Markets (closed)63 / 67
History coverage51d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 63 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+15%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-17%)
Will Trump speak to Xi Jinping in June? Yes 21¢ 17¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 31 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 16 $4 $0 +5%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 15 $2 $0 -18%
Will MrBeast say "Cash" during his next YouTube video? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 10 $2 −$1 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 10 $3 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$1 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 10 $4 −$1 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 10 $9 −$4 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 10 $4 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 10 $10 −$4 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 10 $1 $0 -1%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $1 $0 -7%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 06 $1 $0 -15%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $1 $0 -10%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 04 $1 $0 -7%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 04 $1 $0 -2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 03 $1 +$4 +450%
Lai Ching-te impeached by June 30? Jun 02 $1 $0 -42%
Will Trump speak to Maria Corina Machado in May? May 29 $1 −$1 -86%
Will the Senate pass a reconciliation bill by May 31? May 25 $1 −$1 -78%
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during Kevin Warsh's swearing-in May 22 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Trump say "Six Seven" during Kevin Warsh's swearing-in ceremony? May 22 $1 −$1 -97%
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 22? May 22 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Trump announce a Taiwan arms sales halt? May 22 $1 +$33 +3219%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? May 21 $5 −$1 -12%
Will NVIDIA say "Disney" during their next earnings call? May 20 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 20 $1 $0 +27%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 19 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 19 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026? May 18 $1 +$4 +338%
Will Trump say "Taiwan" or "Tibet" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $1 −$1 -52%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026? May 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026? May 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 15 $1 −$1 -80%
Trump out as President by June 30? May 14 $2 $0 -12%
Trump endorses China's claim to Taiwan this week? May 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump and Xi handshake last 2–6 seconds during the day of their n May 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump and Xi handshake last 15 seconds or longer during the day o May 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Trump and Xi handshake last 6–10 seconds during the day of their May 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Trump and Xi only be photographed together during the day of thei May 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Will J.D. Vance attend Trump’s Xi summit? May 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Melania Trump attend Trump’s Xi summit? May 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Elon Musk attend Trump’s Xi summit? May 13 $2 −$2 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 13 $1 +$3 +293%
Will Trump say "IQ" during events with Xi Jinping? May 11 $2 −$2 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET SELL Up 58¢ $1 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET SELL Down 49¢ $1 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET SELL Up 59¢ $1 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET SELL Up 71¢ $1 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $1 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET SELL Up 60¢ $1 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 27h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 37h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 23¢ $2 37h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 28¢ $2 41h
Will Trump speak to Xi Jinping in June? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 6d
Will MrBeast say "Cash" during his next YouTube video? BUY Yes 37¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET SELL Up 10¢ $0 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET SELL Down 59¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET SELL Up 55¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET SELL Up 73¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET SELL Down $0 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET SELL Up 55¢ $0 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET SELL Up 73¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET SELL Down 33¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $2 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.78 · official $3.78 (match) · 136 history records