Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T13:36:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EF 0xefa3…2350 weather 261 markets active 2h ago coverage 547d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$161 (-3%) realized −$161 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate50%130W / 130L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 31% $0
other 19% −$6
politics 15% −$147
crypto 13% +$1
culture 9% $0
economics 4% $0
tech 4% +$1
world 2% $0
sports 2% −$11
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -0.0% -9.6% 28% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 78 -0.0% -9.5% 38% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 210 -1.9% -11.3% 43% 0% -13.6%
all 260 -2.7% -12.0% 50% 1% -12.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.0% 1% -12.4%
10% -20.4% 1% -20.8%
15% -28.1% 0% -28.4%
20% -35.1% 0% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.04 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.04 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

547d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized−$161
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses130 / 130
Open positions1
Markets (closed)260 / 261
History coverage547d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 260 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Putin and Zelenskyy shake hands by June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will "Supergirl" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 52m? Jun 28 $51 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 104°F or higher on June 29? Jun 28 $17 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 28? Jun 28 $23 $0 -0%
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 22-June 28? Jun 28 $9 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 28? Jun 28 $19 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 28? Jun 27 $19 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 28? Jun 27 $25 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 24°C on June 28? Jun 27 $7 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 28? Jun 27 $17 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 45°C or higher on June 27? Jun 27 $22 $0 -0%
Will JT Poston win the 2026 Travelers Championship? Jun 27 $48 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 29°C or below on June 28? Jun 27 $7 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 42°C on June 27? Jun 27 $6 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? Jun 26 $9 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 40°C on June 26? Jun 26 $12 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $45 Week of June 22 2026? Jun 26 $7 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 26? Jun 26 $28 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 75°F or below on June 26? Jun 26 $8 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on June 25? Jun 25 $17 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 25? Jun 25 $17 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 26? Jun 25 $24 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 37°C on June 25? Jun 25 $9 $0 -0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C or below on June 25? Jun 25 $28 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 26°C or below on June 26? Jun 25 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 25? Jun 25 $9 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 25? Jun 25 $26 $0 -0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 24? Jun 25 $14 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 24? Jun 24 $17 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 24? Jun 24 $16 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on June 19? Jun 19 $12 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 98-99°F on June 19? Jun 19 $30 $0 -0%
Will Mandy Ghusar advance from the CA-04 primary election? Jun 13 $27 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,000 on June 8? Jun 09 $22 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 74°F or higher on June 4? Jun 05 $18 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 4? Jun 04 $15 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 3? Jun 04 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,100 and $2,200 on June 3? Jun 03 $19 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on June 3? Jun 03 $9 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 3? Jun 03 $8 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.40 on June 3? Jun 03 $15 $0 -0%
Will another outcome occur in the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election? Jun 03 $22 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on June 4? Jun 03 $25 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $10 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 20°C on June 3? Jun 03 $21 $0 -0%
Will Katie Bansil be the Democratic nominee for NJ-06? Jun 03 $8 $0 -0%
Will the Democratic Party of Korea win 0 or 1 seats in South Korea’s J Jun 02 $20 $0 -0%
Will "The Crash" be the top US Netflix movie this week? Jun 02 $12 $0 -0%
Will "Nemesis" be the top global Netflix show this week? Jun 02 $14 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 34°C on June 3? Jun 02 $9 $0 -0%
Will the price of Solana be between $50 and $60 on June 2? Jun 02 $8 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Putin and Zelenskyy shake hands by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $30 1h
Will "Supergirl" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 52m? SELL Yes 100¢ $22 2h
Will "Supergirl" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 52m? BUY Yes 100¢ $22 3h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 104°F or higher on June 29? SELL No 100¢ $17 5h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 28? SELL No 100¢ $23 5h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 104°F or higher on June 29? BUY No 100¢ $17 6h
Will "Supergirl" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 52m? SELL Yes 100¢ $29 9h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 28? BUY No 100¢ $23 9h
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 22-June 28? SELL No 100¢ $9 11h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 28? SELL Yes 100¢ $18 11h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 28? BUY Yes 100¢ $19 12h
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 22-June 28? BUY No 100¢ $9 14h
Will "Supergirl" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 52m? BUY Yes 100¢ $29 15h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 28? SELL No 100¢ $1 18h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 28? SELL No 100¢ $19 19h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 28? SELL No 100¢ $25 21h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 24°C on June 28? SELL No 100¢ $7 21h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 28? SELL No 100¢ $17 21h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 28? BUY No 100¢ $17 21h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 24°C on June 28? BUY No 100¢ $7 22h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 45°C or higher on June 27? SELL No 100¢ $22 25h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 28? BUY No 100¢ $25 25h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 45°C or higher on June 27? BUY No 100¢ $22 27h
Will JT Poston win the 2026 Travelers Championship? SELL No 100¢ $8 27h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 28? BUY No 100¢ $19 29h
Will JT Poston win the 2026 Travelers Championship? SELL No 100¢ $9 29h
Will JT Poston win the 2026 Travelers Championship? SELL No 100¢ $12 29h
Will JT Poston win the 2026 Travelers Championship? SELL No 100¢ $17 31h
Will JT Poston win the 2026 Travelers Championship? SELL No 100¢ $3 33h
Will JT Poston win the 2026 Travelers Championship? BUY No 100¢ $28 33h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.98 · official $29.98 (match) · 607 history records