Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T11:21:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
EF 0xefa3…7585 sports 456 markets active 1h ago coverage 51d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,173 (+4%) realized +$1,331 · open −$158
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate49%203W / 212L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$73per market
Trades / day39.9pace
Fees−$504est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$3,086now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$770
7 days+$761
14 days+$1,701
30 days+$1,123
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$965
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 169 -3.9% -13.0% 43% 43% -4.3%
≤30d 415 +0.3% -9.3% 49% 48% -6.2%
≤90d 415 +0.3% -9.3% 49% 48% -6.2%
all 415 +0.3% -9.3% 49% 48% -6.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover39.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.3% 48% -6.2%
10% ← realistic here -17.9% 47% -15.2%
15% -25.9% 43% -23.4%
20% -33.1% 38% -30.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$70 vs −$62 · ×1.13 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

51d coverage
Net worth$3,086
Realized+$1,331
Unrealized−$158
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses203 / 212
Est. fees paid−$504
Open positions41
Markets (closed)415 / 456
History coverage51d
Avg bet$73
Trades / day39.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 41 History 415 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Rooster (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Playoffs Rooster 23¢ 100¢ $209 $912 +$703 (+336%)
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs KOLESIE (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoffs Gentle Mates 68¢ 78¢ $356 $403 +$47 (+13%)
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Team Falcons 28¢ 30¢ $205 $215 +$10 (+5%)
Valorant: Fancy United vs TrinitY (BO3) - VCL Southeast Asia: Playoffs Fancy United 66¢ 54¢ $194 $156 −$38 (-19%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BetBoom Team 43¢ 44¢ $146 $152 +$7 (+4%)
Valorant: Shopify Rebellion Black vs Azure Dragon Gaming (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group Stage Azure Dragon Gaming 33¢ 32¢ $161 $152 −$9 (-6%)
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - European Pro League Series 7 Playoffs Infinite 49¢ 50¢ $108 $111 +$3 (+3%)
Counter-Strike: JiJieHao vs Phantom (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Closed Qualifier Playoffs JiJieHao 63¢ 62¢ $105 $103 −$2 (-2%)
Valorant: M80 vs SaD Esports (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group Stage M80 58¢ 54¢ $110 $102 −$8 (-7%)
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs KOLESIE (BO3) - European Pro League Series 7 Playoffs Sashi Esport 50¢ 46¢ $104 $94 −$10 (-9%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Spirit 75¢ 74¢ $83 $82 −$0 (-1%)
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Paper Rex 69¢ 72¢ $67 $70 +$3 (+5%)
Valorant: Shopify Rebellion Black vs Azure Dragon Gaming - Map 1 Winner Azure Dragon Gaming 35¢ 36¢ $64 $67 +$3 (+4%)
Valorant: Leviatán Academy vs ShindeN (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: Regular Season ShindeN 77¢ 78¢ $64 $64 +$0 (+0%)
Valorant: M80 vs SaD Esports - Map 1 Winner M80 57¢ 50¢ $61 $53 −$8 (-14%)
Valorant: M80 vs SaD Esports - Map 2 Winner M80 57¢ 50¢ $43 $38 −$5 (-11%)
Counter-Strike: BIG vs Lynn Vision (BO1) - XSE Pro League Group Stage Lynn Vision 37¢ 38¢ $35 $35 +$0 (+1%)
Valorant: Shopify Rebellion Black vs Azure Dragon Gaming - Map 2 Winner Azure Dragon Gaming 35¢ 36¢ $32 $33 +$1 (+3%)
Counter-Strike: JiJieHao vs Phantom - Map 1 Winner JiJieHao 55¢ 58¢ $28 $30 +$1 (+5%)
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs GenOne - Map 2 Winner HOTU 57¢ 60¢ $25 $26 +$1 (+4%)
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoffs HOTU 62¢ 62¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+1%)
Counter-Strike: K27 vs SHISHKA (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Closed Qualifier Playoffs SHISHKA 25¢ 24¢ $20 $19 −$0 (-2%)
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Sinners (BO1) - XSE Pro League Group Stage Sinners 29¢ 35¢ $15 $18 +$3 (+21%)
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs KOLESIE (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Closed Qualifier Playoffs ECHO 44¢ 44¢ $18 $18 +$0 (+0%)
Valorant: Crest Gaming Zst vs Insomnia (BO3) - VCL Japan Main Stage Crest Gaming Zst 68¢ 68¢ $16 $16 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 174 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Ursa (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoffs Jun 18 $301 +$108 +36%
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Rooster - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $64 −$64 -100%
Valorant: Dynamo Esports vs ROSE (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Gr Jun 18 $143 +$244 +171%
Valorant: Dynamo Esports vs ROSE - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $100 +$140 +141%
Valorant: Alliance Guardians vs Pigeons (BO3) - VCL North America: Sta Jun 18 $140 +$204 +146%
Valorant: Chivas Esports vs LYON - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $30 −$30 -100%
Valorant: Chivas Esports vs LYON (BO3) - VCL Latin America North: Regu Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Valorant: Division One vs Team Evictix - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $88 +$63 +72%
Valorant: STREAMER ARENA vs FUSION (BO3) - VCL Latin America North: Re Jun 17 $48 −$48 -99%
Valorant: FlyQuest vs Evil Geniuses Academy (BO3) - VCL North America: Jun 17 $144 −$143 -99%
Valorant: Division One vs Team Evictix (BO3) - VCL North America: Stag Jun 17 $201 −$200 -100%
Valorant: Division One vs Team Evictix - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $27 −$27 -99%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Sta Jun 17 $87 −$6 -7%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se Jun 17 $234 +$178 +76%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 17 $62 −$62 -100%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $96 +$121 +127%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $49 −$18 -38%
Valorant: So:sweet vs Dplus (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regular Season Jun 17 $177 +$93 +53%
Valorant: So:sweet vs Dplus - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $41 +$28 +67%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 17 $2 $0 +3%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Sinners (BO1) - XSE Pro League Group Stage Jun 17 $2 +$1 +52%
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs INOX Division (BO3) - CCT Europe Series Jun 17 $46 +$6 +14%
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl Jun 17 $1 +$1 +122%
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $3 +$3 +113%
Valorant: Gen.G Global Academy vs ONSIDE GAMING (BO3) - VCL Korea: Reg Jun 17 $100 −$99 -99%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo Jun 17 $51 −$51 -100%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S Jun 16 $141 +$175 +124%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $116 +$133 +114%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 16 $40 +$34 +86%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs HyperSpirit (BO3) - European Pro Leagu Jun 16 $57 +$22 +39%
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Rooster (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Pl Jun 16 $74 −$39 -53%
Counter-Strike: MARKandLARRY vs DXA Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $44 +$33 +76%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Infinite (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Jun 16 $12 −$12 -100%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof Jun 16 $78 −$78 -100%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Jun 16 $58 −$58 -100%
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Jun 16 $21 −$21 -100%
Counter-Strike: MARKandLARRY vs DXA Esports (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series Jun 16 $152 −$151 -100%
Valorant: FlyQuest vs Evil Geniuses Academy - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $68 −$67 -99%
Valorant: FlyQuest vs Evil Geniuses Academy - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $24 −$24 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $139 +$252 +182%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $149 +$259 +175%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo Jun 15 $2 +$3 +212%
Counter-Strike: ReThink vs Wingman - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $22 +$16 +76%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs HyperSpirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $27 +$41 +150%
Counter-Strike: ReThink vs Wingman (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europe Playof Jun 15 $146 −$145 -100%
Counter-Strike: ReThink vs Wingman - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $37 −$36 -99%
Counter-Strike: MARKandLARRY vs DXA Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $37 −$37 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Rooster (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Pl BUY Ground Zero 68¢ $109 1h
Valorant: Fancy United vs TrinitY (BO3) - VCL Southeast Asia: Playoffs BUY Fancy United 65¢ $100 1h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs KOLESIE (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 P BUY Gentle Mates 69¢ $100 1h
Valorant: Fancy United vs TrinitY (BO3) - VCL Southeast Asia: Playoffs BUY Fancy United 68¢ $32 1h
Valorant: Fancy United vs TrinitY (BO3) - VCL Southeast Asia: Playoffs BUY Fancy United 68¢ $63 1h
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs Noir Verse - Map 1 Winner BUY Noir Verse 17¢ $25 2h
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Rooster - Map 1 Winner BUY Rooster 31¢ $53 2h
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Rooster - Map 2 Winner BUY Rooster 29¢ $2 3h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs KOLESIE (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 P BUY Gentle Mates 69¢ $10 3h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Ursa (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoffs BUY TDK 73¢ $3 3h
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Rooster - Map 1 Winner BUY Rooster 29¢ $2 3h
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs GenOne - Map 2 Winner BUY HOTU 57¢ $25 4h
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs Noir Verse (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Cl BUY Noir Verse 10¢ $4 4h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Ursa (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoffs BUY TDK 73¢ $90 4h
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs Noir Verse (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Cl BUY Noir Verse 10¢ $1 4h
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs Noir Verse (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Cl BUY Noir Verse 10¢ $8 4h
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs Noir Verse (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Cl BUY Noir Verse 10¢ $1 4h
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs Noir Verse - Map 2 Winner BUY Noir Verse 15¢ $11 5h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs KOLESIE (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 P BUY Gentle Mates 69¢ $100 5h
Valorant: Shopify Rebellion Black vs Azure Dragon Gaming (BO3) - VCL N BUY Azure Dragon Gaming 31¢ $12 5h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs KOLESIE (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 P BUY Gentle Mates 70¢ $10 5h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Ursa (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoffs BUY TDK 74¢ $10 5h
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode BUY Oxuji Esports 30¢ $10 5h
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoffs BUY HOTU 62¢ $25 6h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs KOLESIE (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 P BUY Gentle Mates 71¢ $24 6h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs KOLESIE (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 P BUY Gentle Mates 66¢ $3 6h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs KOLESIE (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 P BUY Gentle Mates 66¢ $3 6h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs KOLESIE (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 P BUY Gentle Mates 66¢ $10 6h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs KOLESIE (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 P BUY Gentle Mates 66¢ $4 6h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs KOLESIE (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 P BUY Gentle Mates 66¢ $3 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,086.46 · official $3,086.46 (match) · 2283 history records