trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Turkiye advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | No | 55¢ | 48¢ | $309 | $266 | −$42 (-14%) |
| Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? | No | 84¢ | 84¢ | $200 | $199 | −$1 (-1%) |
| Will Paraguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | No | 67¢ | 68¢ | $100 | $101 | +$1 (+1%) |
| Will Saudi Arabia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | No | 66¢ | 66¢ | $100 | $99 | −$1 (-1%) |
| Will Tunisia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | No | 66¢ | 64¢ | $100 | $97 | −$3 (-3%) |
| Will Morocco win on 2026-01-14? | Yes | 44¢ | 0¢ | $0 | $0 | −$0 (-100%) |
| Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? | Yes | 24¢ | 0¢ | $48 | $0 | −$48 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? | Jun 14 | $201 | −$189 | -94% |
| Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? | Jun 14 | $728 | +$124 | +17% |
| Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? | Jun 14 | $43 | +$56 | +132% |
| Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? | Jun 13 | $49 | −$48 | -98% |
| Will Morocco win on 2026-01-14? | Jan 14 | $1,000 | −$965 | -96% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 4 | -11.4% | -19.8% | 50% | 50% | -14.6% |
| ≤30d | 4 | -11.4% | -19.8% | 50% | 50% | -14.6% |
| ≤90d | 4 | -11.4% | -19.8% | 50% | 50% | -14.6% |
| all | 5 | -29.1% | -35.9% | 40% | 40% | -14.6% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -35.9% | 40% | -14.6% |
| 10% | -42.0% | 20% | -22.8% |
| 15% | -47.6% | 20% | -30.3% |
| 20% | -52.7% | 20% | -37.1% |