Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T06:40:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

EF
0xefa1…8a16
sports · 520 markets active 1h ago
2.5score
−$1,766 -3%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$2,227 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$48
Realized−$2,227
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses263 / 253
Whale WR (big bets)66%
Est. fees paid−$214
Open positions4
Markets (closed)516 / 520
History coverage126d
Avg bet$126
Trades / day9.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%
Chart Positions 4 History 516 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days−$82
14 days−$383
30 days−$27
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Over 46¢ 46¢ $29 $29 −$0 (-1%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Yes 51¢ 50¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Yes 27¢ 26¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 59¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-09? Yes 60¢ 0¢ $23 $0 −$23 (-100%)
Will France vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 81¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 +$14 +68%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $36 −$28 -78%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $52 +$26 +49%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $25 −$25 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $30 −$30 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $69 +$75 +108%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $31 −$26 -85%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $30 −$15 -48%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $111 +$5 +4%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $71 −$53 -74%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $101 +$44 +43%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 10 $45 +$8 +18%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $50 +$4 +7%
Portugal leading at halftime? Jun 10 $5 −$4 -82%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 10 $7 $0 -7%
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 10 $19 −$13 -66%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $23 −$23 -99%
DR Congo vs. Chile: O/U 1.5 Jun 09 $12 +$11 +91%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 09 $25 +$6 +24%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 08 $8 +$2 +21%
Will France win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $110 +$4 +4%
Jordan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 08 $51 −$30 -59%
Will Morocco vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 07 $61 +$31 +51%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $53 −$37 -70%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $41 −$27 -66%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $6 −$4 -59%
Argentina vs. Honduras: O/U 3.5 Jun 07 $25 −$9 -36%
Brazil vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 06 $26 +$9 +33%
England vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 06 $12 −$6 -51%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $35 +$18 +50%
Canada vs. Republic of Ireland: Both Teams to Score Jun 06 $15 +$17 +109%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-05? Jun 06 $40 +$3 +8%
Georgia vs. Bahrain: O/U 2.5 Jun 05 $16 −$11 -65%
Spread: Mexico (-2.5) Jun 05 $100 +$10 +10%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 05 $15 +$10 +63%
Guatemala vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 05 $15 +$2 +14%
Will Georgia win on 2026-06-02? Jun 04 $10 −$10 -100%
Will France vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 04 $23 −$6 -29%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $35 −$24 -68%
Will France win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $252 −$111 -44%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $203 −$128 -63%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-03? Jun 04 $151 +$36 +24%
Will Italy win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $81 +$40 +50%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $151 −$75 -49%
Will Haiti vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 03 $61 −$10 -16%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-02? Jun 03 $51 +$3 +7%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-02? Jun 03 $10 −$6 -60%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-02? Jun 02 $303 +$33 +11%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-02? Jun 02 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Wales win on 2026-06-02? Jun 02 $203 −$102 -50%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 58% −$4,851
other 42% +$2,764
crypto 1% −$166
world 0% +$22
politics 0% +$3
tech 0% −$3
finance 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 46¢ $29 42m
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $10 53m
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 30¢ $5 53m
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 97¢ $34 54m
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 56m
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $20 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 13¢ $8 1h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 95¢ $78 3h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $22 26h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $6 26h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $30 26h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $30 26h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $25 26h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $30 26h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 97¢ $144 28h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $69 33h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 6¢ $4 33h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 29¢ $16 34h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 39¢ $31 35h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $30 35h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 82¢ $91 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 17¢ $18 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 64¢ $71 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 11¢ $6 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 37¢ $20 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $145 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $101 2d
Spread: England (-1.5) SELL England 100¢ $54 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? SELL Yes 96¢ $54 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? BUY Yes 89¢ $50 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-16.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -17.9% -25.7% 48% 36% -16.3%
≤30d 107 -9.5% -18.1% 53% 46% -9.8%
≤90d 313 -11.2% -19.7% 48% 41% -7.5%
all 516 -7.7% -16.5% 51% 39% -12.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover9.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.5% 39% -12.6%
10% -24.4% 28% -21.0%
15% -31.7% 22% -28.6%
20% -38.4% 16% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $48.41 · official $48.41 (match) · 1340 history records