Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T12:53:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EF 0xef9c…58f9 world 40 markets active 2h ago coverage 454d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate48%19W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$2
14 days−$3
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 55% −$3
other 17% $0
crypto 8% $0
politics 7% −$1
tech 6% $0
finance 5% $0
sports 2% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +0.9% -8.7% 50% 0% -8.7%
≤30d 16 -1.7% -11.1% 31% 0% -10.2%
≤90d 16 -1.7% -11.1% 31% 0% -10.2%
all 40 -2.7% -12.0% 48% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.0% 0% -9.9%
10% -20.4% 0% -18.5%
15% -28.1% 0% -26.4%
20% -35.1% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

454d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses19 / 21
Open positions0
Markets (closed)40 / 40
History coverage454d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 40 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 20 $27 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 20 $4 $0 -2%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $30 +$1 +2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $29 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 19 $30 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $30 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 18 $20 +$1 +5%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $2 $0 +2%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 13 $16 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $30 −$1 -4%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $8 −$1 -17%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $6 −$1 -8%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 09 $31 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $18 −$1 -4%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 09 $44 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $32 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? Dec 14 $1 $0 +1%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 01 $12 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 260–274 times May 30–June 6? Jun 07 $1 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $103K and $104K on May 23? May 22 $12 $0 +1%
Will Pacers vs. Nuggets be the 2025 NBA Finals matchup? May 22 $11 +$1 +5%
Will federal spending decrease by $250-500b between Q4 2024 and Q2 202 May 17 $10 $0 -0%
Will Karol Nawrocki win the most votes in the first round of the Polis May 15 $2 $0 +3%
Will Solana reach $250 in May? May 15 $10 $0 +1%
Will Malta win Eurovision 2025? May 15 $12 $0 +1%
Ethereum all time high by June 30? May 11 $12 $0 +1%
Will the next Government of Canada be a Liberal minority? May 10 $12 $0 -0%
Will Red Bull Racing be the 2025 Constructors Champion? May 10 $11 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on May 4? May 09 $1 −$1 -92%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on May 31? May 09 $12 $0 +1%
Will Edi Rama be the next Prime Minister of Albania after the 2025 ele May 08 $12 $0 -0%
Will Sam Altman buy TikTok? May 08 $11 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1000 in May? May 07 $12 $0 +1%
Will Luís Montenegro be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after the May 07 $12 $0 -0%
Will the Edmonton Oilers win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 06 $11 $0 -1%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on June 30? May 06 $2 $0 -6%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the Eastern Conference? May 05 $14 $0 +0%
Will TikTok be banned again before May? May 05 $12 $0 +3%
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. before April? Mar 24 $14 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2025 President’s Trophy? Mar 23 $14 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 74¢ $27 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 74¢ $27 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $4 7h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $4 9h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 92¢ $30 14h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 90¢ $30 15h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $29 19h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $24 23h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $5 23h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $30 25h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $30 30h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 66¢ $30 40h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 66¢ $30 41h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 45¢ $21 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 43¢ $20 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $2 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $2 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $14 7d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $1 7d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $12 7d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $4 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 64¢ $3 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 64¢ $26 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 67¢ $30 7d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 10¢ $7 8d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 12¢ $8 8d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $1 9d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $1 9d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $3 9d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $6 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 128 history records