Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T07:39:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
EF 0xef9a…f58d sports 137 markets active 1h ago coverage 168d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,272 (-7%) realized −$1,271 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate54%73W / 63L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$143per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$98est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$117now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$101
7 days−$514
14 days−$401
30 days−$686
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% −$1,024
other 4% −$298
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-19.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -60.0% -63.8% 29% 29% -60.4%
≤30d 28 -24.7% -31.9% 46% 46% -28.2%
≤90d 81 -14.6% -22.7% 54% 53% -22.8%
all 136 -11.5% -19.9% 54% 53% -15.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.9% 53% -15.7%
10% -27.6% 51% -23.8%
15% -34.6% 44% -31.1%
20% -41.0% 26% -37.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$91 vs −$127 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

168d coverage
Net worth$117
Realized−$1,271
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses73 / 63
Est. fees paid−$98
Open positions1
Markets (closed)136 / 137
History coverage168d
Avg bet$143
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 136 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? No 59¢ 58¢ $118 $117 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 61 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $167 −$166 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $135 +$65 +48%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla Jun 21 $139 −$138 -100%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Jun 20 $69 −$68 -98%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 19 $151 +$49 +32%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $105 −$104 -99%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $153 −$152 -99%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 16 $79 −$78 -98%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 15 $115 +$85 +73%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London Jun 14 $97 −$96 -98%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 13 $93 +$107 +114%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pla Jun 12 $135 +$65 +48%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $139 +$61 +44%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage Jun 10 $123 −$122 -99%
Valorant: Global Esports vs FULL SENSE (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 10 $117 +$93 +79%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 09 $146 +$76 +52%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Global Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters Londo Jun 08 $115 +$85 +73%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $133 −$132 -99%
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 04 $135 +$65 +48%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 02 $129 −$128 -99%
Minnesota Twins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 02 $119 +$81 +67%
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 01 $125 −$124 -99%
Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago White Sox May 30 $55 −$54 -99%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 29 $117 −$116 -99%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Detroit Tigers May 28 $111 −$110 -99%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 27 $85 −$84 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 27 $127 +$73 +57%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 26 $115 +$85 +73%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 24 $91 −$90 -98%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 24 $91 +$109 +119%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 22 $109 −$108 -99%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 22 $139 +$61 +44%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 21 $137 +$63 +46%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 20 $104 +$46 +44%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 18 $137 −$136 -99%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 17 $259 −$256 -99%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 17 $103 −$3 -3%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 14 $71 −$70 -98%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 14 $79 +$121 +152%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 13 $157 +$43 +27%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 12 $165 +$35 +21%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 11 $155 +$45 +29%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 10 $129 −$128 -99%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 09 $129 +$71 +55%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 08 $121 +$79 +65%
76ers vs. Knicks May 07 $145 +$55 +38%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 06 $119 +$81 +67%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs JD Gaming (BO3) - VCT China Playoffs May 05 $145 +$55 +38%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers May 04 $109 +$41 +38%
Pistons vs. Magic May 01 $83 −$82 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 59¢ $119 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $167 18h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $135 2d
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla BUY Paper Rex 69¢ $57 3d
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla BUY Paper Rex 69¢ $82 3d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London BUY EDward Gaming 34¢ $69 4d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Paper Rex 75¢ $151 4d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 52¢ $105 6d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $153 6d
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY FUT Esports 37¢ $79 8d
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo BUY EDward Gaming 57¢ $115 9d
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London BUY Team Heretics 48¢ $97 10d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY EDward Gaming 46¢ $93 11d
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pla BUY Paper Rex 67¢ $135 12d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $139 13d
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage BUY NRG 61¢ $123 13d
Valorant: Global Esports vs FULL SENSE (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou BUY Global Esports 55¢ $117 15d
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou BUY Team Vitality 65¢ $146 16d
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Global Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters Londo BUY Leviatán Esports 57¢ $115 17d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 66¢ $133 19d
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 67¢ $135 20d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 64¢ $129 22d
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Tampa Bay Rays 62¢ $125 23d
Minnesota Twins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 59¢ $119 24d
Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Detroit Tigers 54¢ $55 25d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 58¢ $117 25d
Los Angeles Angels vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Detroit Tigers 55¢ $111 27d
Thunder vs. Spurs BUY Thunder 42¢ $85 28d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 63¢ $127 28d
Knicks vs. Cavaliers BUY Knicks 57¢ $115 30d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $117.00 · official $117.00 (match) · 220 history records