Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T20:19:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
EF 0xef92…1867 crypto 107 markets active 2h ago coverage 110d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$141 (-2%) realized −$141 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate58%62W / 45L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$84per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$32
7 days+$32
14 days+$32
30 days+$32
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 95% −$239
other 2% +$32
world 2% +$18
politics 1% +$49
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-21.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +15.8% +4.8% 100% 100% +4.8%
≤30d 1 +15.8% +4.8% 100% 100% +4.8%
≤90d 43 -23.5% -30.8% 56% 33% -6.9%
all 107 -13.7% -21.9% 58% 37% -11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.9% 37% -11.1%
10% -29.4% 26% -19.6%
15% -36.2% 20% -27.3%
20% -42.5% 16% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
34% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -31% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$26 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

110d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$141
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses62 / 45
Open positions0
Markets (closed)107 / 107
History coverage110d
Avg bet$84
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 107 Trades
no open positions (35 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $201 +$32 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Apr 25 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Apr 25 $10 +$6 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Apr 22 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Apr 22 $207 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Apr 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Apr 16 $10 +$8 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Apr 16 $150 +$11 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Apr 02 $234 −$13 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Apr 02 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Apr 02 $232 +$14 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Apr 02 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Apr 02 $5 +$4 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Apr 02 $220 +$17 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Apr 01 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Apr 01 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Apr 01 $100 +$29 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Apr 01 $30 −$9 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Mar 31 $20 +$21 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Mar 30 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Mar 30 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Mar 30 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Mar 29 $3 −$3 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Mar 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Mar 29 $100 +$9 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Mar 29 $20 +$4 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Mar 29 $221 −$3 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Mar 28 $10 +$6 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Mar 28 $110 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Mar 28 $10 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Mar 28 $20 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Mar 28 $20 +$4 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Mar 28 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Mar 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Mar 27 $181 +$24 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Mar 27 $100 +$27 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Mar 27 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Mar 26 $139 +$45 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Mar 26 $30 −$30 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Mar 26 $167 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Mar 26 $145 +$22 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Mar 26 $211 −$22 -10%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Mar 26 $171 +$18 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Mar 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Mar 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Mar 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Mar 23 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Mar 10 $119 −$118 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Mar 10 $150 −$149 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Mar 10 $286 −$20 -7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 86¢ $201 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $5 58d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $10 58d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $207 61d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $18 66d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $10 66d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $161 66d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $50 66d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $100 66d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $20 81d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $10 81d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET SELL Up 87¢ $220 81d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $234 81d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 81d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 81d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 81d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 81d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 81d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $2 81d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 81d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 81d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 81d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 81d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 81d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 81d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 81d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 81d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 81d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 81d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 81d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 282 history records