Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T19:56:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5

score

EF 0xef8f…b51d other 9 markets active 1h ago coverage 19d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL +$176 (+4%) realized −$596 · open +$772

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip

Net edge-32%after slip

Net WR25%break-even

Win rate25%1W / 3L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$490per market

Trades / day0.6pace

Fees−$4est.

Kalshi-fit11%portable

Net worth$3,472now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days−$328

7 days−$191

14 days−$191

30 days−$491

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +25%

net ROI/market (all)-31.6%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	2	+51.1%	+36.7%	50%	50%	-24.9%
≤30d	4	-24.4%	-31.6%	25%	25%	-40.7%
≤90d	4	-24.4%	-31.6%	25%	25%	-40.7%
all	4	-24.4%	-31.6%	25%	25%	-40.7%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.6 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-31.6%	25%	-40.7%
10%	-38.2%	25%	-46.3%
15%	-44.2%	25%	-51.5%
20%	-49.6%	25%	-56.3%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -34% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -24% · $-wt -34% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$137 vs −$209 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.22 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

19d coverage

Net worth$3,472

Realized−$596

Unrealized+$772

Win rate (resolved)25%

Wins / losses1 / 3

Est. fees paid−$4

Open positions4

Markets (closed)4 / 9

History coverage19d

Avg bet$490

Trades / day0.6

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit11%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 4 History 4 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	16¢	23¢	$1,000	$1,417	+$417 (+42%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	9¢	18¢	$500	$1,037	+$537 (+107%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	10¢	9¢	$1,000	$866	−$134 (-13%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	2¢	1¢	$200	$153	−$47 (-24%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 27	$1,025	−$328	-32%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? AND Will France win on 2026-06-22? AND	Jun 23	$102	+$137	+134%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 12	$102	−$100	-98%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 08	$206	−$200	-97%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	12¢	$697	1h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 1.5 AND Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? AND Wil	BUY	38¢	$200	25h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? AND Will France win on 2026-06-22? AND	SELL	79¢	$239	4d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? AND Will France win on 2026-06-22? AND	BUY	33¢	$102	5d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12?	BUY Yes	39¢	$102	15d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	1¢	$206	19d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	2¢	$206	19d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	9¢	$514	19d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	10¢	$1,027	19d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	16¢	$1,025	19d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	16¢	$1,025	19d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,472.15 · official $3,472.15 (match) · 30 history records