Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T15:55:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

EF
0xef8e…2b95
sports · 43 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$32 -24%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$32 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist
Net worth$20
Realized−$32
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses10 / 29
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)39 / 43
History coverage188d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%
Chart Positions 3 History 39 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$11
14 days+$11
30 days+$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-9%)
Spurs vs. Thunder Spurs 27¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Rockets vs. Kings Rockets $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Burnley FC vs. Everton FC: Both Teams to Score Yes 47¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Spread: Warriors (-4.5) Warriors 50¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Jazz vs. Thunder Jazz 11¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2025-12-14? Yes 24¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Spurs vs. Lakers Lakers 29¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Heat vs. Magic Heat 15¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will Chelsea FC vs. Aston Villa FC end in a draw? Yes 24¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Nottingham Forest FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: Both Teams to Score Yes 56¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Warriors vs. Suns Warriors 56¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Perth Glory FC win on 2026-01-16? Yes 49¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-01-18? Yes 57¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Rockets vs. Nuggets Rockets 53¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Auckland FC win on 2026-01-16? Yes 35¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2025-12-28? Yes 34¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will Central Coast Mariners FC win on 2026-01-17? Yes 28¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Melbourne Victory FC vs. Adelaide United FC end in a draw? Yes 22¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Knicks vs. Raptors Raptors 34¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Pistons vs. Celtics Celtics 45¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Spurs vs. Knicks Spurs 45¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Mavericks vs. Jazz Mavericks 50¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $10 +$17 +165%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $10 +$4 +42%
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026? Feb 21 $1 $0 +10%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-01-18? Jan 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-01-17? Jan 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Adelaide United FC win on 2026-01-17? Jan 17 $1 +$3 +257%
Will Western Sydney Wanderers FC vs. Newcastle United Jets FC end in a Jan 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Central Coast Mariners FC win on 2026-01-17? Jan 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Perth Glory FC win on 2026-01-16? Jan 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Auckland FC win on 2026-01-16? Jan 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder Jan 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Rockets vs. Kings Jan 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Jazz vs. Thunder Jan 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2025-12-28? Dec 28 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2025-12-27? Dec 28 $2 +$1 +33%
Will Chelsea FC vs. Aston Villa FC end in a draw? Dec 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Burnley FC vs. Everton FC: Both Teams to Score Dec 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Warriors vs. Suns Dec 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Dec 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Rockets vs. Nuggets Dec 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Mavericks vs. Jazz Dec 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Pistons vs. Celtics Dec 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Lakers vs. Suns Dec 15 $1 +$1 +150%
Warriors vs. Trail Blazers Dec 15 $1 +$2 +194%
Spread: Warriors (-4.5) Dec 15 $1 −$1 -100%
76ers vs. Hawks Dec 15 $1 −$1 -100%
West Ham United FC vs. Aston Villa FC: Both Teams to Score Dec 15 $3 +$2 +67%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2025-12-14? Dec 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Nottingham Forest FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: Both Teams to Score Dec 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Wellington Phoenix FC win on 2025-12-13? Dec 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder Dec 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Melbourne Victory FC vs. Adelaide United FC end in a draw? Dec 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Western Sydney Wanderers FC win on 2025-12-13? Dec 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Spurs vs. Lakers Dec 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Knicks vs. Raptors Dec 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Heat vs. Magic Dec 10 $4 −$4 -100%
Kings vs. Pacers Dec 10 $1 $0 +9%
Will Olympiakós SFP win on 2025-12-09? Dec 10 $8 +$1 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 60% +$7
sports 39% −$40
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 1h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes $1 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? AND Will United States win on 2026-06-1 BUY 27¢ $10 2d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 65¢ $10 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $27 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 37¢ $10 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $10 3d
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026? SELL No 33¢ $1 112d
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-01-18? BUY Yes 57¢ $1 147d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-01-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $3 148d
Will Adelaide United FC win on 2026-01-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $4 148d
Will Western Sydney Wanderers FC vs. Newcastle United Jets FC end in a BUY Yes 24¢ $1 148d
Will Adelaide United FC win on 2026-01-17? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 148d
Will Central Coast Mariners FC win on 2026-01-17? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 148d
Will Perth Glory FC win on 2026-01-16? BUY Yes 49¢ $1 149d
Will Auckland FC win on 2026-01-16? BUY Yes 35¢ $1 149d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Spurs 27¢ $1 151d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Spurs 27¢ $1 151d
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026? BUY No 30¢ $1 152d
Rockets vs. Kings BUY Rockets $1 153d
Jazz vs. Thunder BUY Jazz 11¢ $1 157d
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2025-12-28? BUY Yes 34¢ $3 168d
Will Chelsea FC vs. Aston Villa FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 168d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2025-12-27? BUY Yes 75¢ $2 169d
Burnley FC vs. Everton FC: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $1 169d
Warriors vs. Suns BUY Warriors 56¢ $2 177d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 45¢ $1 179d
Rockets vs. Nuggets BUY Rockets 53¢ $1 180d
Mavericks vs. Jazz BUY Mavericks 50¢ $1 180d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-55.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +35.5% +22.6% 67% 67% +23.3%
≤30d 3 +35.5% +22.6% 67% 67% +23.3%
≤90d 3 +35.5% +22.6% 67% 67% +23.3%
all 39 -50.4% -55.2% 26% 18% -38.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -55.2% 18% -38.3%
10% -59.5% 18% -44.2%
15% -63.4% 15% -49.6%
20% -67.0% 13% -54.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $20.49 · official $20.49 (match) · 57 history records