trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? | Yes | 26¢ | 26¢ | $10 | $10 | −$0 (-2%) |
| Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? | Yes | 22¢ | 22¢ | $10 | $10 | −$0 (-2%) |
| Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? | Yes | 4¢ | 4¢ | $1 | $1 | −$0 (-9%) |
| Spurs vs. Thunder | Spurs | 27¢ | 0¢ | $2 | $0 | −$2 (-100%) |
| Rockets vs. Kings | Rockets | 6¢ | 0¢ | $1 | $0 | −$1 (-100%) |
| Burnley FC vs. Everton FC: Both Teams to Score | Yes | 47¢ | 0¢ | $1 | $0 | −$1 (-100%) |
| Spread: Warriors (-4.5) | Warriors | 50¢ | 0¢ | $1 | $0 | −$1 (-100%) |
| Jazz vs. Thunder | Jazz | 11¢ | 0¢ | $1 | $0 | −$1 (-100%) |
| Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2025-12-14? | Yes | 24¢ | 0¢ | $2 | $0 | −$2 (-100%) |
| Spurs vs. Lakers | Lakers | 29¢ | 0¢ | $3 | $0 | −$3 (-100%) |
| Heat vs. Magic | Heat | 15¢ | 0¢ | $4 | $0 | −$4 (-100%) |
| Will Chelsea FC vs. Aston Villa FC end in a draw? | Yes | 24¢ | 0¢ | $2 | $0 | −$2 (-100%) |
| Nottingham Forest FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: Both Teams to Score | Yes | 56¢ | 0¢ | $3 | $0 | −$3 (-100%) |
| Warriors vs. Suns | Warriors | 56¢ | 0¢ | $2 | $0 | −$2 (-100%) |
| Will Perth Glory FC win on 2026-01-16? | Yes | 49¢ | 0¢ | $1 | $0 | −$1 (-100%) |
| Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-01-18? | Yes | 57¢ | 0¢ | $1 | $0 | −$1 (-100%) |
| Rockets vs. Nuggets | Rockets | 53¢ | 0¢ | $1 | $0 | −$1 (-100%) |
| Will Auckland FC win on 2026-01-16? | Yes | 35¢ | 0¢ | $1 | $0 | −$1 (-100%) |
| Will Sunderland AFC win on 2025-12-28? | Yes | 34¢ | 0¢ | $3 | $0 | −$3 (-100%) |
| Will Central Coast Mariners FC win on 2026-01-17? | Yes | 28¢ | 0¢ | $1 | $0 | −$1 (-100%) |
| Will Melbourne Victory FC vs. Adelaide United FC end in a draw? | Yes | 22¢ | 0¢ | $1 | $0 | −$1 (-100%) |
| Knicks vs. Raptors | Raptors | 34¢ | 0¢ | $3 | $0 | −$3 (-100%) |
| Pistons vs. Celtics | Celtics | 45¢ | 0¢ | $1 | $0 | −$1 (-100%) |
| Spurs vs. Knicks | Spurs | 45¢ | 0¢ | $1 | $0 | −$1 (-100%) |
| Mavericks vs. Jazz | Mavericks | 50¢ | 0¢ | $1 | $0 | −$1 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Knicks vs. Spurs | Jun 12 | $10 | −$10 | -99% |
| Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? | Jun 12 | $10 | +$17 | +165% |
| Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? | Jun 12 | $10 | +$4 | +42% |
| US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026? | Feb 21 | $1 | $0 | +10% |
| Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-01-18? | Jan 18 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-01-17? | Jan 17 | $3 | −$3 | -100% |
| Will Adelaide United FC win on 2026-01-17? | Jan 17 | $1 | +$3 | +257% |
| Will Western Sydney Wanderers FC vs. Newcastle United Jets FC end in a | Jan 17 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will Central Coast Mariners FC win on 2026-01-17? | Jan 17 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will Perth Glory FC win on 2026-01-16? | Jan 16 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will Auckland FC win on 2026-01-16? | Jan 16 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Spurs vs. Thunder | Jan 14 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Rockets vs. Kings | Jan 12 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Jazz vs. Thunder | Jan 08 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will Sunderland AFC win on 2025-12-28? | Dec 28 | $3 | −$3 | -100% |
| Will Arsenal FC win on 2025-12-27? | Dec 28 | $2 | +$1 | +33% |
| Will Chelsea FC vs. Aston Villa FC end in a draw? | Dec 27 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Burnley FC vs. Everton FC: Both Teams to Score | Dec 27 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Warriors vs. Suns | Dec 19 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Spurs vs. Knicks | Dec 17 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Rockets vs. Nuggets | Dec 16 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Mavericks vs. Jazz | Dec 16 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Pistons vs. Celtics | Dec 16 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Lakers vs. Suns | Dec 15 | $1 | +$1 | +150% |
| Warriors vs. Trail Blazers | Dec 15 | $1 | +$2 | +194% |
| Spread: Warriors (-4.5) | Dec 15 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| 76ers vs. Hawks | Dec 15 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| West Ham United FC vs. Aston Villa FC: Both Teams to Score | Dec 15 | $3 | +$2 | +67% |
| Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2025-12-14? | Dec 14 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Nottingham Forest FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: Both Teams to Score | Dec 14 | $3 | −$3 | -100% |
| Will Wellington Phoenix FC win on 2025-12-13? | Dec 14 | $3 | −$3 | -100% |
| Spurs vs. Thunder | Dec 14 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| Will Melbourne Victory FC vs. Adelaide United FC end in a draw? | Dec 13 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will Western Sydney Wanderers FC win on 2025-12-13? | Dec 13 | $3 | −$3 | -100% |
| Spurs vs. Lakers | Dec 11 | $3 | −$3 | -100% |
| Knicks vs. Raptors | Dec 10 | $3 | −$3 | -100% |
| Heat vs. Magic | Dec 10 | $4 | −$4 | -100% |
| Kings vs. Pacers | Dec 10 | $1 | $0 | +9% |
| Will Olympiakós SFP win on 2025-12-09? | Dec 10 | $8 | +$1 | +8% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 3 | +35.5% | +22.6% | 67% | 67% | +23.3% |
| ≤30d | 3 | +35.5% | +22.6% | 67% | 67% | +23.3% |
| ≤90d | 3 | +35.5% | +22.6% | 67% | 67% | +23.3% |
| all | 39 | -50.4% | -55.2% | 26% | 18% | -38.3% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -55.2% | 18% | -38.3% |
| 10% | -59.5% | 18% | -44.2% |
| 15% | -63.4% | 15% | -49.6% |
| 20% | -67.0% | 13% | -54.6% |