Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T16:10:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
EF 0xef8d…b115 other 8 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$135 (-3%) realized −$134 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -37% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -47% what you keep after slip
Net edge-47%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$599per market
Trades / day9.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit12%portable
Net worth$3,622now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 98% −$55
sports 2% −$100
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-42.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -36.8% -42.8% 0% 0% -22.5%
≤30d 3 -36.8% -42.8% 0% 0% -22.5%
≤90d 3 -36.8% -42.8% 0% 0% -22.5%
all 3 -36.8% -42.8% 0% 0% -22.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -42.8% 0% -22.5%
10% -48.3% 0% -29.9%
15% -53.3% 0% -36.7%
20% -57.9% 0% -42.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -37% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$51 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$3,622
Realized−$134
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 3
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions5
Markets (closed)3 / 8
History coverage1d
Avg bet$599
Trades / day9.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit12%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 12¢ $1,338 $1,410 +$72 (+5%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $1,000 $990 −$10 (-1%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $680 $660 −$20 (-3%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $358 $350 −$8 (-2%)
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 25¢ 21¢ $248 $213 −$35 (-14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 18 $582 −$40 -7%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 18 $394 −$14 -4%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $102 −$100 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $1,016 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 61¢ $543 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 64¢ $380 1h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $102 13h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $714 14h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $368 31h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $700 32h
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 25¢ $35 32h
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 25¢ $218 32h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $582 32h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 65¢ $394 32h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $659 32h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,622.44 · official $3,622.44 (match) · 13 history records