Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:11:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
EF 0xef8d…183c crypto 27 markets active 1h ago coverage 96d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$247 (-12%) realized −$247 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate36%9W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$74per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$21now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$190
7 days−$190
14 days−$190
30 days−$190
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$366
sports 1% $0
other 1% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-35.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -63.6% -67.1% 18% 9% -54.9%
≤30d 11 -63.6% -67.1% 18% 9% -54.9%
≤90d 11 -63.6% -67.1% 18% 9% -54.9%
all 25 -28.3% -35.1% 36% 32% -27.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -35.1% 32% -27.5%
10% -41.3% 32% -34.5%
15% -47.0% 28% -40.8%
20% -52.2% 28% -46.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 52% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -50% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -28% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -55% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$62 vs −$59 · ×1.06 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

96d coverage
Net worth$21
Realized−$247
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses9 / 16
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)25 / 27
History coverage96d
Avg bet$74
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 25 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 Over 19¢ 18¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-3%)
Spread: Spain (-4.5) Spain 21¢ 22¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 15 $42 −$40 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 15 $51 +$2 +5%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $11 −$11 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 14 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 14 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 14 $37 +$58 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 14 $111 −$70 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 14 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 14 $26 −$24 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 14 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Mar 13 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Mar 13 $60 +$51 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Mar 12 $320 −$288 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Mar 12 $231 +$79 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Mar 12 $127 +$114 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Mar 12 $330 −$261 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Mar 12 $211 +$177 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Mar 12 $80 +$64 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Mar 12 $95 −$30 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Mar 12 $37 −$37 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Mar 11 $28 −$28 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Mar 11 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Mar 11 $13 +$7 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Mar 11 $4 +$9 +235%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Spain (-4.5) BUY Spain 21¢ $10 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $5 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $5 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $5 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $5 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $5 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $5 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $5 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $5 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $5 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $25 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET SELL Down 7¢ $1 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $5 57m
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 19¢ $11 58m
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $11 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $26 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $26 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $5 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $5 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $26 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $5 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $5 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $26 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET SELL Down 4¢ $41 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $5 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $27 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $27 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $20.62 · official $20.62 (match) · 82 history records