Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T06:07:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EF 0xef8c…a9a5 crypto 73 markets active 1h ago coverage 29d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$64 (-9%) realized −$64 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate30%22W / 51L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day5.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$7
14 days−$40
30 days−$112
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$112
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-23.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 +1.6% -8.0% 45% 45% -14.8%
≤30d 73 -15.5% -23.6% 30% 26% -23.2%
≤90d 73 -15.5% -23.6% 30% 26% -23.2%
all 73 -15.5% -23.6% 30% 26% -23.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.6% 26% -23.2%
10% -30.9% 26% -30.6%
15% -37.6% 23% -37.3%
20% -43.7% 23% -43.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -26% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$5 · ×1.27 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

29d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$64
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses22 / 51
Open positions0
Markets (closed)73 / 73
History coverage29d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day5.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 73 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$4 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$3 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$3 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$4 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$7 +137%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$7 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$4 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$7 +135%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$4 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$4 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$4 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$4 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$2 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$4 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$4 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$7 +141%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$6 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$8 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$8 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 06 $15 −$1 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 06 $16 −$3 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 06 $16 −$1 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 06 $16 −$3 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 06 $16 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 06 $16 −$1 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 06 $16 −$10 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 06 $16 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 06 $15 −$3 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 06 $16 −$3 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 06 $16 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 06 $16 −$3 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 06 $15 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 06 $16 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 06 $16 +$5 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 06 $16 −$5 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 06 $16 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 06 $16 −$2 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET May 26 $8 −$8 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET May 26 $8 −$7 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET May 26 $8 −$7 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET May 26 $8 −$3 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET May 26 $8 −$6 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET May 26 $8 −$8 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET May 26 $8 +$8 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET May 26 $8 −$8 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET May 26 $8 −$6 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET May 26 $8 −$7 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET May 26 $8 +$6 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET May 26 $8 −$6 -76%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET SELL Up 13¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET SELL Up 22¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET SELL Up 2¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET SELL Up 53¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET SELL Up 10¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $5 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $5 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET SELL Up 75¢ $9 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $5 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $12 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $5 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET SELL Up 15¢ $2 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $5 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET SELL Up 6¢ $1 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $5 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET SELL Down 10¢ $1 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $5 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET SELL Down 13¢ $2 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $5 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET SELL Down 79¢ $7 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $5 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET SELL Up 82¢ $9 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $5 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET SELL Up 7¢ $1 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $5 37h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 155 history records