Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T03:19:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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EF 0xef8b…066b crypto 1809 markets active 0h ago coverage 157d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 157d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$922 (-5%) realized −$924 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate58%1052W / 748L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day12.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$22now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$42
7 days+$143
14 days+$102
30 days+$197
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$1,202
other 0% −$16
sports 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-17.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 169 +4.4% -5.6% 72% 69% -4.6%
≤30d 422 -0.4% -9.9% 69% 66% -6.6%
≤90d 1225 -5.2% -14.2% 65% 61% -12.7%
all 1800 -8.7% -17.4% 58% 55% -15.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.4% 55% -15.0%
10% -25.3% 48% -23.1%
15% -32.5% 36% -30.6%
20% -39.1% 22% -37.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$9 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

157d coverage
Net worth$22
Realized−$924
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses1052 / 748
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1800 / 1809
History coverage157d ⚠
Avg bet$11
Trades / day12.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1800 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Down 78¢ 84¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 499 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 16 $15 +$4 +27%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$5 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$5 +52%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$3 +28%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 16 $31 −$30 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 16 $21 −$20 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 16 $31 +$34 +110%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 16 $26 +$12 +45%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 16 $15 −$15 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 16 $26 −$25 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 16 $61 +$9 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 16 $21 −$20 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 16 $15 +$9 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 16 $27 +$12 +44%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 16 $26 +$14 +55%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 16 $31 −$30 -98%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 16 $20 +$8 +39%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 16 $15 +$10 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 16 $26 +$18 +70%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 16 $15 −$15 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 16 $15 +$13 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$5 +46%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$3 +29%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 15 $15 +$7 +44%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 15 $15 +$6 +42%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 15 $20 +$7 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 15 $8 +$3 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 15 $11 +$27 +252%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $15 +$6 +39%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$3 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$6 +121%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 14 $15 +$6 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 14 $15 +$5 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 14 $15 +$6 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 14 $12 −$12 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 14 $11 −$10 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 14 $8 +$3 +42%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$12 +114%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 14 $12 +$4 +36%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$3 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$3 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $20 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $15 6m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $7 10m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $10 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $10 26m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $10 30m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $10 35m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $21 36m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $21 43m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $10 47m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $31 52m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $15 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $26 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $26 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $61 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $26 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $15 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $26 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $31 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $7 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $20 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $26 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $15 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $15 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $15 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $21.67 · official $12.18 · 3500 history records