Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T10:53:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EF 0xef89…388e crypto 9 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$17 (-69%) realized −$17 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -78% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -83% what you keep after slip
Net edge-83%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate11%1W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day26.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$21
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-80.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -78.0% -80.1% 11% 11% -86.4%
≤30d 9 -78.0% -80.1% 11% 11% -86.4%
≤90d 9 -78.0% -80.1% 11% 11% -86.4%
all 9 -78.0% -80.1% 11% 11% -86.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -80.1% 11% -86.4%
10% ← realistic here -82.0% 0% -87.7%
15% -83.8% 0% -88.9%
20% -85.3% 0% -90.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -85% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -78% · $-wt -85% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$3 · ×0.06 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses1 / 8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)9 / 9
History coverage1d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day26.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 9 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$1 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 16 $14 −$14 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET SELL Up 77¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET SELL Up 59¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $5 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 28 history records