Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T23:26:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
EF 0xef85…2c38 sports 271 markets active 2h ago coverage 149d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,515 (-2%) realized −$1,609 · open +$94
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate57%151W / 114L
Whale WR81%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$246per market
Trades / day5.4pace
Fees−$555est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$4,365now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$141
7 days+$141
14 days+$141
30 days−$824
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 92% −$1,771
other 8% +$31
crypto 0% −$109
politics 0% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-16.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +10.6% +0.1% 50% 50% +6.0%
≤30d 25 -12.1% -20.5% 52% 52% -18.1%
≤90d 258 -9.2% -17.8% 56% 48% -12.4%
all 265 -8.2% -16.9% 57% 48% -12.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.9% 48% -12.4%
10% -24.9% 40% -20.8%
15% -32.1% 30% -28.4%
20% -38.8% 22% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 81% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -14% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$89 vs −$135 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

149d coverage
Net worth$4,365
Realized−$1,609
Unrealized+$94
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses151 / 114
Whale WR (big bets)81%
Est. fees paid−$555
Open positions6
Markets (closed)265 / 271
History coverage149d
Avg bet$246
Trades / day5.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 265 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 27¢ 28¢ $1,611 $1,650 +$39 (+2%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 24¢ $1,175 $1,419 +$244 (+21%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 11¢ $822 $681 −$141 (-17%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $645 $609 −$36 (-6%)
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $6 $4 −$2 (-25%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $12 $2 −$10 (-88%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $167 −$53 -32%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $123 +$14 +11%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $256 −$93 -36%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $274 +$273 +100%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $3 −$3 -97%
Set Handicap: Zverev (-1.5) vs Cobolli (+1.5) Jun 06 $319 −$316 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 214.5 Jun 06 $259 −$255 -99%
Set Handicap: Cobolli (-1.5) vs Arnaldi (+1.5) Jun 05 $274 −$24 -9%
Set Handicap: Zverev (-1.5) vs Mensik (+1.5) Jun 05 $318 +$182 +57%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 222.5 Jun 04 $377 −$358 -95%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 211.5 Jun 04 $480 −$343 -72%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 03 $527 +$473 +90%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca Jun 02 $1,159 −$1,150 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev Jun 02 $399 +$101 +25%
Frances Tiafoe vs. Matteo Arnaldi: Total Sets O/U 3.5 Jun 02 $172 +$78 +46%
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 01 $279 −$275 -99%
Set 1 Winner: Cobolli vs Svajda Jun 01 $190 +$60 +32%
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Joao Fonseca Jun 01 $321 +$179 +56%
Jakub Mensik vs. Andrey Rublev: Total Sets O/U 3.5 Jun 01 $347 +$153 +44%
Felix Auger-Aliassime vs. Alejandro Tabilo: Total Sets O/U 3.5 Jun 01 $171 −$169 -99%
Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs. Matteo Berrettini: Total Sets O/U 3.5 Jun 01 $172 −$170 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Pablo Carreno Busta May 31 $363 +$137 +38%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 211.5 May 31 $304 +$196 +65%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Learner Tien May 30 $647 +$353 +55%
Roland Garros ATP: Alex Michelsen vs Rafael Jodar May 29 $815 +$185 +23%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 219.5 May 28 $497 −$490 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Raphael Collignon vs Ben Shelton May 28 $475 −$469 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Stefanos Tsitsipas May 28 $427 −$250 -58%
Martin Landaluce vs. Vit Kopriva: Total Sets O/U 3.5 May 28 $67 +$33 +49%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Yibing Wu May 28 $770 +$230 +30%
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Hamad Medjedovic May 27 $32 −$28 -88%
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Dino Prizmic May 27 $34 +$33 +97%
Roland Garros ATP: Thanasi Kokkinakis vs Pablo Carreno Busta May 27 $72 +$28 +40%
Roland Garros ATP: Alejandro Tabilo vs Valentin Vacherot May 27 $65 −$15 -24%
Roland Garros ATP: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Thiago Agustin Tiran May 27 $56 +$44 +79%
Roland Garros ATP: Karen Khachanov vs Marco Trungelliti May 27 $155 +$42 +27%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 213.5 May 27 $4 +$4 +87%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 217.5 May 27 $95 +$86 +90%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Daniel Altmaier May 26 $307 −$115 -38%
Roland Garros ATP: Alexander Bublik vs Jan-Lennard Struff May 26 $263 −$117 -45%
Roland Garros ATP: Ignacio Buse vs Andrey Rublev May 25 $544 +$156 +29%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Andrea Pellegrino May 25 $373 +$127 +34%
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Roman Safiullin May 25 $130 +$9 +7%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 25 $53 −$32 -60%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 219.5 May 25 $579 −$570 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Novak Djokovic May 25 $317 +$83 +26%
Hamad Medjedovic vs. Yannick Hanfmann: Total Sets O/U 3.5 May 24 $67 +$33 +50%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs G2 Esports - Map 1 Winner May 24 $52 −$38 -74%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs G2 Esports - Map 2 Winner May 24 $59 −$58 -99%
Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs. Novak Djokovic: Total Sets O/U 3.5 May 24 $54 −$53 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 27¢ $826 1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $314 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $351 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 23¢ $16 2h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 23¢ $723 2h
Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 27¢ $629 2h
Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 26¢ $192 2h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 4¢ $114 2h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 5¢ $137 2h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $163 2h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 19¢ $547 2h
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $6 18d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $12 18d
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $3 18d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $123 18d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $167 18d
Set Handicap: Zverev (-1.5) vs Cobolli (+1.5) BUY Zverev 64¢ $319 20d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $256 21d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $274 21d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $348 21d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $492 21d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $495 21d
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 214.5 BUY Over 51¢ $259 21d
Set Handicap: Cobolli (-1.5) vs Arnaldi (+1.5) BUY Cobolli 54¢ $274 22d
Set Handicap: Zverev (-1.5) vs Mensik (+1.5) SELL Zverev 100¢ $499 22d
Set Handicap: Zverev (-1.5) vs Mensik (+1.5) BUY Zverev 63¢ $288 22d
Set Handicap: Zverev (-1.5) vs Mensik (+1.5) BUY Zverev 62¢ $29 22d
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 222.5 SELL Over 2¢ $19 23d
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 211.5 SELL Over 14¢ $136 23d
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 211.5 BUY Over 48¢ $161 23d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,364.90 · official $4,364.90 (match) · 1020 history records