Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T22:26:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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EF 0xef81…1a9e sports 189 markets active 2h ago coverage 19d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$302 (-10%) realized −$305 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate48%90W / 96L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day23.5pace
Fees−$35est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$77now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$71
14 days−$207
30 days−$365
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 81% −$208
other 18% −$159
world 0% +$5
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-21.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 43 -10.1% -18.6% 63% 35% -25.6%
≤30d 186 -13.1% -21.4% 48% 37% -21.7%
≤90d 186 -13.1% -21.4% 48% 37% -21.7%
all 186 -13.1% -21.4% 48% 37% -21.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -21.4% 37% -21.7%
10% ← realistic here -28.9% 28% -29.2%
15% -35.8% 23% -36.0%
20% -42.1% 18% -42.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$10 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

19d coverage
Net worth$77
Realized−$305
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses90 / 96
Est. fees paid−$35
Open positions3
Markets (closed)186 / 189
History coverage19d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day23.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 186 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 10¢ $43 $46 +$3 (+8%)
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Under 55¢ 55¢ $22 $22 −$0 (-1%)
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Under 47¢ 46¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 68 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
France vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $9 +$1 +12%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $5 −$4 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $5 +$5 +109%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $16 +$4 +29%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $7 −$3 -40%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $23 +$2 +10%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $10 +$8 +82%
Spread: Morocco (-2.5) Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +6%
Qatar leading at halftime? Jun 13 $5 $0 +7%
Spread: Qatar (-2.5) Jun 13 $5 $0 +1%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -99%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $20 −$20 -99%
Spread: Canada (-2.5) Jun 12 $5 +$1 +11%
Libema Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Magda Linette Jun 12 $5 +$5 +99%
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic Jun 12 $5 +$4 +90%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $60 −$59 -99%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 12 $5 −$5 -99%
United States leading at halftime? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -99%
Spread: Czechia (-2.5) Jun 12 $5 $0 +4%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $5 +$2 +42%
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) Jun 12 $5 +$1 +18%
Spread: Korea Republic (-2.5) Jun 12 $5 $0 +5%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 6.5 Jun 12 $5 $0 +1%
South Africa leading at halftime? Jun 11 $5 +$1 +11%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 5.5 Jun 11 $10 $0 +3%
Spread: Mexico (-2.5) Jun 11 $15 +$2 +17%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 4.5 Jun 11 $5 +$1 +11%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 6.5 Jun 11 $5 $0 +1%
Ilkley: Yunchaokete Bu vs Leandro Riedi Jun 11 $5 $0 -5%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -99%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Draw at halftime? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -99%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 11 $5 +$9 +180%
Mexico leading at halftime? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -99%
England leading at halftime? Jun 11 $31 +$17 +55%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) Jun 10 $5 −$5 -99%
Bolivia vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 10 $5 −$5 -99%
Costa Rica leading at halftime? Jun 10 $34 $0 -0%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Saigon Dino - Game 1 Winner Jun 10 $5 $0 +7%
Set Handicap: Anisimova (-1.5) vs Siegemund (+1.5) Jun 10 $5 +$5 +97%
Spread: Saudi Arabia (-1.5) Jun 10 $10 $0 +3%
Will Estonia vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 09 $10 +$35 +344%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $40 +$65 +163%
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) Jun 09 $30 +$8 +26%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $15 −$15 -98%
China PR vs. Thailand: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $10 +$7 +73%
Will Estonia win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $31 −$30 -98%
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) Jun 09 $10 −$10 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
France vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Over 55¢ $4 1h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Over 75¢ $5 1h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 72¢ $1 3h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 72¢ $3 3h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $20 3h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 70¢ $4 3h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 52¢ $3 3h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 59¢ $6 3h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 45¢ $5 3h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $11 11h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 47¢ $10 11h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $11 11h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $24 11h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 77¢ $16 26h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 40¢ $4 27h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $7 27h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 47¢ $5 29h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany 2nd Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 95¢ $16 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany 2nd Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 92¢ $1 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany 2nd Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 92¢ $1 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany 2nd Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 92¢ $1 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany 2nd Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 52¢ $10 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 91¢ $23 2d
Spread: Morocco (-2.5) BUY Brazil 99¢ $5 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 55¢ $5 3d
Qatar leading at halftime? BUY No 93¢ $5 3d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 94¢ $5 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY No 53¢ $5 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY No 53¢ $5 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY No 53¢ $5 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $77.22 · official $77.22 (match) · 525 history records