Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T17:00:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

EF
0xef7f…856c
crypto · 7 markets active 1h ago
1.5score
−$1 -11%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$2 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses4 / 3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)7 / 7
History coverage14d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 0 History 7 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Down 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET May 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-42.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -25.3% -32.4% 67% 50% -25.3%
≤30d 7 -36.0% -42.1% 57% 43% -34.0%
≤90d 7 -36.0% -42.1% 57% 43% -34.0%
all 7 -36.0% -42.1% 57% 43% -34.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -42.1% 43% -34.0%
10% -47.6% 0% -40.3%
15% -52.7% 0% -46.1%
20% -57.3% 0% -51.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 18 history records