Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T21:44:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
EF 0xef7f…a196 crypto 33 markets active 1h ago coverage 590d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$266 (+4%) realized +$266 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate45%15W / 18L
Drawdown33%max
Avg bet$180per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$215
7 days+$324
14 days+$497
30 days+$455
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 69% +$261
crypto 19% +$165
economics 7% −$61
sports 3% +$25
world 3% +$23
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-17.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +16.6% +5.5% 50% 50% +4.8%
≤30d 29 -6.8% -15.6% 45% 41% -0.7%
≤90d 29 -6.8% -15.6% 45% 41% -0.7%
all 33 -8.2% -17.0% 45% 42% -3.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.0% 42% -3.2%
10% -24.9% 33% -12.5%
15% -32.2% 21% -20.9%
20% -38.8% 12% -28.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +7% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -23% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$62 vs −$29 · ×2.16 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.8 per $1 lost it wins $1.8
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

590d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$266
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses15 / 18
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)33 / 33
History coverage590d
Avg bet$180
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown33%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 33 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $360 +$215 +60%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $820 −$31 -4%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $357 +$214 +60%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 18 $167 −$7 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 18 $105 +$29 +28%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $239 −$95 -40%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $303 +$132 +44%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $795 −$67 -8%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $51 +$2 +4%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $47 −$2 -4%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $33 +$13 +40%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $144 +$94 +66%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 10 $222 −$7 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 06 $10 −$4 -39%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $370 −$58 -16%
Will Australia vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 06 $76 +$10 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 03 $10 +$7 +65%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 3? Jun 03 $121 −$2 -2%
Birmingham: Ugo Blanchet vs Felix Gill Jun 03 $4 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 03 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 03 $5 −$4 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 03 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 03 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 03 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 03 $86 +$10 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 02 $15 +$7 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 02 $31 +$9 +29%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-02? Jun 02 $207 +$68 +33%
Will Jerome Powell say "tariff" during December FOMC Press Conference? Nov 27 $417 −$61 -15%
Bitcoin above $90,000 on November 22? Nov 27 $651 +$94 +14%
Will Mike Tyson win his boxing match against Jake Paul? Nov 19 $100 −$100 -100%
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? Nov 19 $104 +$25 +24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 94¢ $425 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 33¢ $150 2h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 39¢ $360 4h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 20¢ $574 2d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $593 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $309 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 85¢ $262 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $357 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 60¢ $161 6d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $167 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET SELL Up 41¢ $134 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $105 6d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 18¢ $97 6d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $102 6d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 39¢ $143 6d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $239 6d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $303 8d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 99¢ $167 8d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 79¢ $132 8d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes 39¢ $53 8d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 45¢ $91 8d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 45¢ $89 8d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 36¢ $51 8d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 47¢ $121 8d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 60¢ $129 8d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 65¢ $129 8d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $364 8d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $302 8d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 54¢ $45 9d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 55¢ $47 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 125 history records