Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:18:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
EF 0xef7e…771c sports 12 markets active 1h ago coverage 16d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$48 (+16%) realized +$48 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +16% what you keep after slip
Net edge+16%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate57%4W / 3L
Drawdown52%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$130now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$53
7 days+$78
14 days+$78
30 days+$58
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 55% +$95
other 25% −$26
politics 20% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)+15.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +49.0% +34.8% 67% 67% +36.2%
≤30d 7 +27.7% +15.6% 57% 57% +20.6%
≤90d 7 +27.7% +15.6% 57% 57% +20.6%
all 7 +27.7% +15.6% 57% 57% +20.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +15.6% 57% +20.6%
10% +4.5% 57% +9.1%
15% -5.6% 57% -1.5%
20% -14.8% 57% -11.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 62% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +33% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +28% · $-wt +33% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$23 · ×1.37 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.83 per $1 lost it wins $1.83
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$130
Realized+$48
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses4 / 3
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions5
Markets (closed)7 / 12
History coverage16d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown52%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Yes 41¢ 44¢ $30 $32 +$2 (+6%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 Over 39¢ 58¢ $20 $30 +$10 (+50%)
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 43¢ 42¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? Yes 27¢ 18¢ $30 $20 −$10 (-35%)
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $25 +$26 +101%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $28 +$28 +97%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $25 +$24 +93%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $25 +$51 +203%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-04? Jun 02 $20 −$20 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 BUY Over 39¢ $20 41m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $31 56m
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm el BUY Yes 43¢ $31 1h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $25 36h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $28 47h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 29¢ $20 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $49 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $30 3d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $25 4d
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $20 4d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $77 4d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $25 4d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-04? BUY Yes 47¢ $20 15d
Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? BUY Yes 27¢ $31 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $130.05 · official $130.05 (match) · 16 history records