Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T14:50:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EF 0xef7e…f5cd crypto 49 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 1d only
✗ bot/MM pace (3453 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1,918 (-22%) realized −$1,908 · open −$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate48%28W / 30L
Drawdown83%max
Avg bet$181per market
Trades / day3453.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$92now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$245
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (3453 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-20.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 58 -12.4% -20.7% 48% 14% -9.0%
≤30d 58 -12.4% -20.7% 48% 14% -9.0%
≤90d 58 -12.4% -20.7% 48% 14% -9.0%
all 58 -12.4% -20.7% 48% 14% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3453.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.7% 14% -9.0%
10% ← realistic here -28.3% 2% -17.7%
15% -35.3% 2% -25.7%
20% -41.6% 2% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 45% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
71% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late -36% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
70.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$14 · ×1.21 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.13 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$92
Realized−$1,908
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses28 / 30
Open positions2
Markets (closed)58 / 49
History coverage1d ⚠
Avg bet$181
Trades / day3453.0
Drawdown83%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 58 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Up 60¢ 100¢ $27 $45 +$18 (+65%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Down 70¢ 62¢ $49 $44 −$6 (-11%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Up 43¢ 38¢ $4 $4 −$1 (-13%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Down 53¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 20 $65 −$65 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 20 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 20 $81 −$81 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 20 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 20 $187 −$15 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 20 $379 −$35 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 20 $216 +$5 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 20 $195 +$12 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 20 $297 +$35 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 20 $97 +$13 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 20 $185 −$11 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 20 $183 +$9 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 20 $169 −$32 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 20 $155 +$15 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 20 $141 +$21 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 20 $199 +$6 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 20 $318 −$7 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 20 $108 +$18 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 20 $329 +$4 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 20 $411 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 20 $148 +$10 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 20 $220 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 20 $121 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 20 $202 +$5 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 20 $125 +$6 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 20 $82 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 20 $97 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 20 $112 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 20 $165 +$8 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 20 $63 +$6 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 20 $111 +$13 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 20 $250 +$18 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 20 $223 −$15 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 20 $169 −$2 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 20 $262 +$6 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 20 $123 −$7 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 20 $258 −$10 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 20 $205 −$5 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 20 $213 +$5 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 20 $111 −$5 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 20 $140 +$14 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 20 $172 +$6 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 20 $177 −$16 -9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $4 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $2 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $2 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $1 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $2 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $2 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $4 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $4 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $4 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $4 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $2 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $2 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $4 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $4 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $4 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $4 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $4 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $4 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $1 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $2 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $2 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $1 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $3 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $4 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $4 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $4 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $4 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $3 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 5m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $92.48 · official $92.43 (match) · 3500 history records