Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T16:58:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EF 0xef7e…97cb world 88 markets active 1h ago coverage 339d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$27 (-0%) realized −$27 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate28%24W / 63L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$134per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$7
14 days−$18
30 days−$29
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 35% −$24
other 26% +$2
politics 21% −$1
sports 11% −$1
economics 4% $0
crypto 3% $0
finance 2% −$4
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -4.7% -13.8% 17% 0% -10.4%
≤30d 25 -3.7% -12.9% 28% 0% -10.3%
≤90d 69 -1.2% -10.6% 30% 1% -9.8%
all 87 -1.0% -10.4% 28% 1% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 1% -9.7%
10% -19.0% 1% -18.4%
15% -26.8% 0% -26.3%
20% -34.0% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 46% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.46 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

339d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$27
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses24 / 63
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)87 / 88
History coverage339d
Avg bet$134
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 87 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-87%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 21 $166 −$1 -1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 21 $132 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 20 $116 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $128 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $20 −$5 -28%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $128 $0 -0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $256 +$1 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $122 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $26 −$12 -44%
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31? Jun 02 $155 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 30 $33 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 29 $21 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 29 $322 +$1 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 28 $134 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 28 $7 $0 -2%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 26 $281 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 26 $179 −$4 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 26 $283 +$8 +3%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 25 $165 +$1 +1%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 25 $68 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 25 $137 +$3 +2%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 24 $125 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 24 $114 −$7 -6%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 24 $34 −$3 -9%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 23 $129 −$10 -8%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 21 $145 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 21 $148 +$1 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 20 $148 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 17 $752 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 16 $92 $0 +0%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 14 $142 +$1 +0%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $142 $0 -0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 26 $306 +$2 +1%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 26 $300 $0 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $428 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $142 $0 -0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 25 $162 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 22 $124 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $142 $0 -0%
Will Richard Van De Water win The Bachelorette Season 22? Apr 20 $282 +$1 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 19 $16 −$1 -6%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $260 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $161 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 17 $40 $0 +0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 16 $141 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 15 $184 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 14 $297 $0 +0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $276 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Apr 12 $31 $0 -0%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $2 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 33¢ $121 1h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 33¢ $121 7h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $56 11h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $56 16h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $116 32h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $116 36h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $52 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $76 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $128 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 31¢ $40 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 31¢ $2 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 32¢ $44 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $14 6d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 6¢ $20 6d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $6 6d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 6d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 6d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $11 7d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $111 7d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $122 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 79¢ $122 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 79¢ $12 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 79¢ $6 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 79¢ $104 7d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $16 7d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $106 7d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $123 7d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $134 7d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $134 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.58 · official $0.00 (match) · 351 history records