Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:22:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EF 0xef7c…a5c6 other 139 markets active 1h ago coverage 106d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$78 (-0%) realized −$78 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate14%19W / 119L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$146per market
Trades / day4.8pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$51now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$8
14 days−$24
30 days−$37
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 26% −$15
politics 26% −$19
other 21% −$26
crypto 8% −$9
economics 8% −$2
finance 5% −$17
culture 3% −$3
world 2% −$1
tech 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -0.5% -10.0% 11% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 61 -1.0% -10.4% 8% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 110 -0.7% -10.2% 12% 0% -10.0%
all 138 -0.6% -10.1% 14% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 0% -9.9%
10% -18.7% 0% -18.6%
15% -26.6% 0% -26.4%
20% -33.8% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.09 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

106d coverage
Net worth$51
Realized−$78
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses19 / 119
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)138 / 139
History coverage106d
Avg bet$146
Trades / day4.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 138 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 92¢ 92¢ $51 $51 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $320 −$1 -0%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $57 −$1 -2%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun Jun 16 $166 +$1 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jun 15 $51 −$1 -2%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 15 $117 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 15 $252 −$1 -0%
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $51 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 14 $251 $0 -0%
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $45 −$1 -2%
Will Australia reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $29 $0 +0%
Will Los Angeles Lakers win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 13 $52 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $54 $0 -0%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 12 $149 −$2 -1%
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 12 $40 $0 -1%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 12 $58 $0 -0%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 11 $213 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $221 $0 -0%
Will Belgium score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $43 $0 -1%
Will Uruguay reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 10 $48 $0 -0%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 09 $236 −$3 -1%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $57 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 07 $417 −$1 -0%
Will Denver Nuggets win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 07 $44 −$2 -4%
Will New York Knicks win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 06 $37 −$2 -6%
Will Raphinha be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $48 $0 -1%
Will Morocco reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $55 −$4 -8%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $63 −$1 -2%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 05 $101 $0 -0%
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 04 $45 $0 -0%
Will Senegal reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $10 −$1 -8%
Will Ferran Torres be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $56 $0 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 03 $62 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet Jun 03 $54 −$1 -2%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? Jun 02 $45 −$2 -4%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $223 −$1 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 01 $205 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 01 $196 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 01 $242 −$1 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 31 $178 −$1 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 30 $54 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 30 $264 −$1 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 29 $91 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 29 $42 $0 -0%
Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 28 $63 +$1 +1%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 28 $565 −$1 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 28 $238 −$1 -0%
Will the New England Patriots win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 27 $58 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May? May 27 $50 −$1 -2%
Will Daniil Medvedev win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 23 $13 $0 +0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $47 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 92¢ $52 1h
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $59 1h
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $59 7h
Will the Seattle Seahawks win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 92¢ $56 7h
Will the Seattle Seahawks win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 93¢ $57 15h
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun SELL No 98¢ $69 16h
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun BUY No 97¢ $2 21h
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun BUY No 97¢ $47 21h
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun BUY No 97¢ $19 21h
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun SELL No 97¢ $47 21h
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun BUY No 97¢ $43 28h
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun BUY No 97¢ $5 29h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $51 29h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $51 36h
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $60 37h
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $60 44h
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 96¢ $65 45h
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 96¢ $65 2d
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 97¢ $51 2d
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 97¢ $51 2d
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 97¢ $57 2d
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $57 2d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $59 2d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $59 2d
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 91¢ $44 2d
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 92¢ $45 2d
Will Australia reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $29 2d
Will Australia reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $29 3d
Will Los Angeles Lakers win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL No 98¢ $52 3d
Will Los Angeles Lakers win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 98¢ $52 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $51.36 · official $51.36 (match) · 533 history records