Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T11:33:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
EF 0xef7b…a4e7 other 46 markets active 1h ago coverage 459d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$3 (+0%) realized +$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate41%19W / 27L
Drawdown20%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 53% +$3
other 28% $0
politics 6% +$1
sports 5% −$1
crypto 3% $0
economics 3% $0
culture 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 16 +1.3% -8.4% 25% 6% -9.2%
≤90d 16 +1.3% -8.4% 25% 6% -9.2%
all 46 +0.8% -8.8% 41% 4% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.8% 4% -9.3%
10% -17.6% 2% -18.0%
15% -25.5% 0% -25.9%
20% -32.8% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 55% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.85 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.34 per $1 lost it wins $2.34
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

459d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses19 / 27
Open positions0
Markets (closed)46 / 46
History coverage459d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown20%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 46 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 25 $48 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 24 $48 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 24 $36 $0 -1%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 23 $93 $0 -0%
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 23 $53 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 23 $95 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 14 $20 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 14 $44 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $90 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $44 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $57 +$1 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $13 +$2 +15%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 10 $7 $0 +6%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 10 $46 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 09 $19 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 09 $6 $0 +0%
Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jul 23 $13 $0 -2%
Will Botafogo RJ win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 23 $12 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $120K in June? Jun 22 $12 $0 -0%
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense before July? Jun 22 $12 $0 -0%
Will Lilo & Stitch be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jun 20 $11 $0 -0%
Will reconciliation bill be passed by June 30? Jun 19 $24 $0 +1%
Will Alexander Zverev win Wimbledon 2025? Jun 19 $12 $0 +0%
Will Kim Jong Un be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 19 $12 $0 +0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2025 National League Championship Jun 18 $25 $0 +0%
Will Borussia Dortmund win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 15 $12 $0 +0%
Will Brad Lander win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City Jun 14 $13 $0 +0%
Will Juventus win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 13 $13 $0 -0%
Will Pascal Siakam Win the 2025 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 12 $12 $0 -4%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Jun 10 $37 $0 +0%
Will Robert Negoiță be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 08 $2 $0 +26%
Trump x Elon talk by Monday? Jun 08 $12 $0 -0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $150-200b in federal spending in 2025? Jun 06 $12 $0 +0%
Will Kim Moon-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 04 $13 +$1 +6%
Will Frankfurt win the UEFA Europa League? Apr 15 $12 $0 -3%
2025 March hottest on record? Apr 09 $13 $0 +0%
Will annual inflation increase by 2.8% or more in March? Apr 08 $13 $0 +0%
Liverpool wins the Premier League? Apr 08 $14 $0 -1%
Will Trump pardon CZ in his first 100 days? Apr 07 $14 $0 +0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard be out as Director of National Intelligence in Trum Apr 06 $14 $0 +1%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on Apr 04 $13 $0 +0%
Will Bayer Leverkusen win the Bundesliga? Apr 03 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Apr 03 $1 $0 -11%
Will federal spending decrease by $750b-1t between Q4 2024 and Q2 2025 Apr 01 $13 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500.00 by March 31? Mar 30 $13 $0 +1%
Will the New Jersey Devils win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 27 $14 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes 90¢ $48 1h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 90¢ $48 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 68¢ $48 21h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 68¢ $48 21h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $9 29h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $26 29h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $36 32h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $44 36h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $44 40h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL Yes 8¢ $5 44h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 46h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $10 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $38 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $49 2d
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $48 2d
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $48 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 23¢ $13 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 23¢ $7 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 23¢ $9 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 23¢ $11 10d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $8 10d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $29 10d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $8 10d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $44 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 79¢ $44 11d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 79¢ $44 11d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $22 11d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $26 11d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $49 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 136 history records