Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:18:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
EF 0xef7a…db70 world 44 markets active 2h ago coverage 40d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$3,700 (+3%) realized +$3,689 · open +$11
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate72%29W / 11L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown12%max
Avg bet$2,728per market
Trades / day33.4pace
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$1,841now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$241
7 days+$48
14 days+$812
30 days+$3,746
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 98% +$5,607
other 2% −$314
crypto 0% −$218
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +3.6% -6.3% 84% 11% -9.4%
≤30d 38 -3.8% -13.0% 71% 16% -5.5%
≤90d 40 -2.9% -12.2% 72% 18% -4.6%
all 40 -2.9% -12.2% 72% 18% -4.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover33.4 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.2% 18% -4.6%
10% -20.6% 2% -13.8%
15% ← realistic here -28.2% 0% -22.1%
20% -35.3% 0% -29.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
76% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$1,725) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -10% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
11.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$220 vs −$120 · ×1.83 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.83 per $1 lost it wins $4.83
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

40d coverage
Net worth$1,841
Realized+$3,689
Unrealized+$11
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses29 / 11
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Open positions4
Markets (closed)40 / 44
History coverage40d
Avg bet$2,728
Trades / day33.4
Drawdown12%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $914 $917 +$3 (+0%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? No 99¢ 100¢ $695 $698 +$3 (+0%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $205 $206 +$1 (+0%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes $16 $20 +$4 (+25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $25,382 −$322 -1%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15? Jun 16 $728 +$81 +11%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $1,174 +$42 +4%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 15 $54 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 15 $58 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $597 +$28 +5%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 14 $928 +$49 +5%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 14 $293 +$18 +6%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17? Jun 13 $383 +$15 +4%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 18? Jun 12 $153 +$7 +5%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? Jun 12 $484 +$2 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? Jun 12 $1,077 +$62 +6%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 12 $629 −$10 -2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 12 $372 +$15 +4%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 12 $2,862 −$35 -1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 12? Jun 11 $894 +$35 +4%
Israel closes its airspace by June 13? Jun 11 $230 +$28 +12%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 11 $628 +$30 +5%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 10 $154 +$2 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $3,885 +$210 +5%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $480 $0 -0%
Will Claude Mythos be released on or prior to June 9? Jun 09 $231 −$88 -38%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 10, 2026? Jun 09 $555 −$306 -55%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? Jun 09 $1,002 +$18 +2%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $434 −$277 -64%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $1,725 +$86 +5%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 08 $933 +$150 +16%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 06 $1,095 +$205 +19%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 04 $8,921 +$766 +9%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 03 $219 −$218 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 01 $118 −$31 -26%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $13,941 +$1,257 +9%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 26 $9,070 +$1,630 +18%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31? May 26 $610 −$25 -4%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 28? May 25 $944 −$11 -1%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 23 $690 +$147 +21%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? May 23 $4,267 +$142 +3%
Iran closes its airspace by May 18? May 18 $1,134 +$43 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 16 $4,763 +$1,067 +22%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026? May 09 $4,514 +$251 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes $16 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $497 2h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $198 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 99¢ $247 17h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $205 19h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $914 19h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 97¢ $242 23h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 95¢ $949 34h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 95¢ $872 34h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 95¢ $5 34h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 95¢ $16 34h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 95¢ $55 34h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 95¢ $0 34h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 95¢ $9 34h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 95¢ $108 34h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 95¢ $126 34h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 95¢ $256 34h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 95¢ $1 34h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 95¢ $5 34h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 95¢ $7 34h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 95¢ $8 34h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 95¢ $63 34h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 95¢ $142 34h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 95¢ $54 34h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 95¢ $1 34h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 95¢ $1 34h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 95¢ $1 34h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 95¢ $9 34h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 95¢ $10 34h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 95¢ $5 34h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,841.22 · official $1,841.22 (match) · 1362 history records