Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T16:49:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
EF 0xef77…c481 sports 48 markets active 0h ago coverage 3d
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (63 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$231 (+3%) realized +$247 · open −$16
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate57%27W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$181per market
Trades / day63.0pace
Fees−$105est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$296now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% +$201
crypto 4% −$56
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (63 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-18.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 47 -10.4% -18.9% 57% 45% -7.8%
≤30d 47 -10.4% -18.9% 57% 45% -7.8%
≤90d 47 -10.4% -18.9% 57% 45% -7.8%
all 47 -10.4% -18.9% 57% 45% -7.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover63.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.9% 45% -7.8%
10% ← realistic here -26.7% 32% -16.6%
15% -33.8% 26% -24.7%
20% -40.2% 15% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -21% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$61 vs −$74 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.11 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$296
Realized+$247
Unrealized−$16
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses27 / 20
Est. fees paid−$105
Open positions1
Markets (closed)47 / 48
History coverage3d
Avg bet$181
Trades / day63.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 47 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka New Zealand 78¢ 74¢ $312 $296 −$16 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Halle Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 15 $121 +$87 +71%
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Francesca Jones Jun 15 $230 −$198 -86%
Figueira Da Foz: Sachia Vickery vs Beatriz Haddad Maia Jun 15 $150 −$108 -72%
ITF Milano: Federico Iannaccone vs Petr Nesterov Jun 15 $130 −$82 -63%
ITF Mungia-Laukariz: Izan Almazan Valiente vs Luka Talan Lopatic Jun 15 $125 +$14 +11%
Parma: Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo vs Luca Van Assche Jun 15 $150 +$69 +46%
Dublin: Juan Pablo Ficovich vs Nicolas Mejia Jun 15 $65 −$25 -38%
Nottingham 2: Tristan Boyer vs Jay Clarke Jun 15 $123 +$66 +54%
Parma: Sebastian Ofner vs Raul Brancaccio Jun 15 $170 +$33 +20%
Nottingham 2: Darwin Blanch vs Zhizhen Zhang Jun 15 $122 +$78 +64%
Brescia: Kathinka von Deichmann vs Anastasiia Sobolieva Jun 15 $173 +$84 +48%
Dublin: Gauthier Onclin vs Kyrian Jacquet Jun 15 $131 +$98 +74%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Petra Marcinko vs Aoi Ito Jun 15 $343 +$138 +40%
Nottingham Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Maria Sakkari Jun 15 $195 −$69 -35%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 15 $30 +$3 +10%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Brazil vs Nigeria Jun 15 $184 +$154 +84%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Zimbabwe High Performance Xi Jun 15 $150 −$150 -100%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 14 $691 −$108 -16%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $137 −$2 -2%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 14 $494 +$11 +2%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 14 $145 +$3 +2%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 14 $102 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 14 $91 −$25 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 14 $15 +$1 +5%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 14 $115 −$10 -8%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 14 $398 +$24 +6%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Pakistan Jun 14 $894 +$155 +17%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 14 $203 +$181 +89%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Bangladesh vs Netherlands Jun 14 $395 +$141 +36%
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 14 $259 −$159 -61%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs New Zealand Jun 13 $504 −$500 -99%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs South Africa Jun 13 $1,144 +$225 +20%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Scotland vs Ireland Jun 13 $100 +$58 +58%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 12 $7 −$7 -98%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 12 $6 +$2 +25%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 12 $6 +$1 +12%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +28%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 12 $3 +$1 +33%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 12 $26 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 12 $25 +$9 +36%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Halle Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Frances Tiafoe SELL Frances Tiafoe 99¢ $208 18m
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Francesca Jones SELL Talia Gibson 11¢ $32 33m
Figueira Da Foz: Sachia Vickery vs Beatriz Haddad Maia SELL Beatriz Haddad Maia 12¢ $27 44m
ITF Milano: Federico Iannaccone vs Petr Nesterov SELL Federico Iannaccone 13¢ $22 46m
ITF Mungia-Laukariz: Izan Almazan Valiente vs Luka Talan Lopatic SELL Izan Almazan Valiente 86¢ $138 1h
ITF Milano: Federico Iannaccone vs Petr Nesterov SELL Federico Iannaccone 81¢ $4 1h
ITF Milano: Federico Iannaccone vs Petr Nesterov SELL Federico Iannaccone 81¢ $23 1h
Figueira Da Foz: Sachia Vickery vs Beatriz Haddad Maia SELL Beatriz Haddad Maia 61¢ $10 1h
Figueira Da Foz: Sachia Vickery vs Beatriz Haddad Maia SELL Beatriz Haddad Maia 61¢ $5 1h
Parma: Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo vs Luca Van Assche SELL Luca Van Assche 76¢ $219 1h
Dublin: Juan Pablo Ficovich vs Nicolas Mejia SELL Juan Pablo Ficovich 31¢ $40 1h
ITF Milano: Federico Iannaccone vs Petr Nesterov BUY Federico Iannaccone 65¢ $130 1h
Nottingham 2: Tristan Boyer vs Jay Clarke SELL Jay Clarke 95¢ $190 1h
Figueira Da Foz: Sachia Vickery vs Beatriz Haddad Maia BUY Beatriz Haddad Maia 60¢ $150 1h
Parma: Sebastian Ofner vs Raul Brancaccio SELL Sebastian Ofner 99¢ $203 1h
Parma: Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo vs Luca Van Assche BUY Luca Van Assche 51¢ $150 1h
Parma: Sebastian Ofner vs Raul Brancaccio BUY Sebastian Ofner 83¢ $78 1h
Parma: Sebastian Ofner vs Raul Brancaccio BUY Sebastian Ofner 83¢ $25 1h
Parma: Sebastian Ofner vs Raul Brancaccio BUY Sebastian Ofner 83¢ $63 1h
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Francesca Jones BUY Talia Gibson 76¢ $77 1h
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Francesca Jones BUY Talia Gibson 76¢ $153 1h
Parma: Sebastian Ofner vs Raul Brancaccio BUY Sebastian Ofner 76¢ $4 1h
Nottingham 2: Darwin Blanch vs Zhizhen Zhang SELL Zhizhen Zhang 100¢ $200 1h
Brescia: Kathinka von Deichmann vs Anastasiia Sobolieva SELL Anastasiia Sobolieva 99¢ $0 1h
Brescia: Kathinka von Deichmann vs Anastasiia Sobolieva SELL Anastasiia Sobolieva 99¢ $257 1h
Nottingham 2: Tristan Boyer vs Jay Clarke BUY Jay Clarke 61¢ $123 2h
Dublin: Gauthier Onclin vs Kyrian Jacquet SELL Kyrian Jacquet 96¢ $228 2h
Dublin: Gauthier Onclin vs Kyrian Jacquet SELL Kyrian Jacquet 96¢ $0 2h
Dublin: Juan Pablo Ficovich vs Nicolas Mejia BUY Juan Pablo Ficovich 49¢ $23 2h
Dublin: Juan Pablo Ficovich vs Nicolas Mejia BUY Juan Pablo Ficovich 48¢ $41 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $295.99 · official $295.99 (match) · 195 history records