Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T20:18:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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EF 0xef74…0275 crypto 1365 markets active 0h ago coverage 12d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 12d only
✗ bot/MM pace (123 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$278 (-6%) realized −$278 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate57%749W / 562L
Drawdown85%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day123.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$962
7 days−$659
14 days+$210
30 days+$210
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$1,368
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (123 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-8.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 730 -29.1% -35.9% 45% 44% -34.8%
≤30d 1311 +1.7% -8.0% 57% 57% -5.4%
≤90d 1311 +1.7% -8.0% 57% 57% -5.4%
all 1311 +1.7% -8.0% 57% 57% -5.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover123.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.0% 57% -5.4%
10% ← realistic here -16.8% 56% -14.5%
15% -24.8% 50% -22.7%
20% -32.2% 38% -30.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +41% → late -37% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.12 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized−$278
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses749 / 562
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1311 / 1365
History coverage12d ⚠
Avg bet$4
Trades / day123.5
Drawdown85%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1311 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Down 62¢ 52¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 499 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $3 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $3 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $8 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $6 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $3 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $0 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $3 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.62 · official $1.68 (match) · 3500 history records