Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T18:41:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
EF 0xef73…bb18 world 34 markets active 2h ago coverage 474d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate44%14W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$38now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$3
14 days+$3
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 79% $0
other 11% −$1
sports 7% $0
politics 2% −$1
tech 1% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +1.4% -8.3% 36% 9% -9.1%
≤30d 19 -3.0% -12.3% 37% 11% -9.5%
≤90d 19 -3.0% -12.3% 37% 11% -9.5%
all 32 -1.9% -11.2% 44% 6% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.2% 6% -9.6%
10% -19.7% 3% -18.2%
15% -27.5% 0% -26.1%
20% -34.6% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 74% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

474d coverage
Net worth$38
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses14 / 18
Open positions2
Markets (closed)32 / 34
History coverage474d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 83¢ 83¢ $37 $37 +$0 (+0%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 70¢ 56¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 20 $7 +$2 +25%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $47 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 19 $77 −$1 -1%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $57 −$1 -2%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $2 $0 -7%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 17 $38 $0 -1%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 16 $32 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 15 $155 +$4 +2%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $24 $0 -0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $47 −$1 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $99 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $37 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $51 $0 +0%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 10 $1 $0 -1%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $7 $0 -2%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $53 $0 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $52 −$4 -7%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 05 $43 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 05 $3 +$1 +22%
Will the US officially declare war on Iran before July? Dec 11 $2 $0 +2%
Will the Conservative Party win the Canadian election by 9-12%? Jun 26 $2 $0 +2%
Will Ethereum dip to $1600 in May? Jun 02 $1 $0 +1%
Will Jean-Marc Aveline be the next pope? May 09 $2 $0 +1%
Arsenal wins the Premier League? Apr 28 $14 $0 +3%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the Western Conference? Mar 30 $2 $0 -6%
Will Sydney Sweeney break up with her fiancé before April? Mar 28 $16 $0 -1%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 28 $16 $0 +0%
Will Sue Bird make the 2025 Class of the Naismith Basketball Hall of F Mar 22 $16 $0 +0%
Sacramento State vs. Portland State Mar 03 $16 $0 +0%
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 8 launch by March 3? Mar 03 $16 $0 -1%
Will Trump's 2025 joint address get >46m viewers? Mar 03 $18 −$1 -5%
Lehigh vs. Loyola Maryland Mar 03 $35 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 83¢ $37 1h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 10¢ $9 17h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 8¢ $7 20h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $30 27h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $17 27h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $47 31h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $25 36h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $2 37h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 37h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $18 37h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 19¢ $4 40h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 17¢ $3 42h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $51 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 74¢ $52 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 74¢ $52 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 76¢ $53 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $2 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 83¢ $37 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 84¢ $38 3d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 99¢ $32 4d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 98¢ $32 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 76¢ $8 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 76¢ $17 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 78¢ $26 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 78¢ $49 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 75¢ $7 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 75¢ $40 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 30¢ $2 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 30¢ $22 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37.83 · official $37.35 (match) · 114 history records