Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T03:55:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0

score

EF 0xef70…0a15 crypto 26 markets active 2h ago coverage 40d

TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized −$3 · open +$3

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -48% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -55% what you keep after slip

Net edge-55%after slip

Net WR0%break-even

Win rate52%12W / 11L

Whale WR100%big bets

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$1,031per market

Trades / day0.8pace

Kalshi-fit96%portable

Net worth$2,064now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$15

7 days+$19

14 days+$9

30 days+$25

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +0%

net ROI/market (all)-52.7%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	5	+0.2%	-9.4%	100%	0%	-9.4%
≤30d	17	-29.3%	-36.0%	71%	0%	-9.4%
≤90d	23	-47.7%	-52.7%	52%	0%	-9.5%
all	23	-47.7%	-52.7%	52%	0%	-9.5%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.8 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-52.7%	0%	-9.5%
10%	-57.2%	0%	-18.2%
15%	-61.4%	0%	-26.1%
20%	-65.1%	0%	-33.3%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 12% · top 2 20% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -48% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR 100% (≥$2,061) strong on big bets

Persistence

early -54% → late -42% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$4 vs −$5 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.92 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

40d coverage

Net worth$2,064

Realized−$3

Unrealized+$3

Win rate (resolved)52%

Wins / losses12 / 11

Whale WR (big bets)100%

Open positions3

Markets (closed)23 / 26

History coverage40d

Avg bet$1,031

Trades / day0.8

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 3 History 23 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $63,000 on June 27?	No	100¢	100¢	$1,999	$2,002	+$3 (+0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $62,000 on June 27?	No	100¢	100¢	$57	$57	+$0 (+0%)
10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?	No	95¢	97¢	$5	$5	+$0 (+2%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 27?	Jun 27	$2,051	+$4	+0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 on June 26?	Jun 27	$2,046	+$4	+0%
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on June 26?	Jun 26	$2,044	+$4	+0%
Will Ethereum reach $1,700 on June 25?	Jun 26	$2,040	+$4	+0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 25?	Jun 25	$2,036	+$4	+0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 17?	Jun 17	$4	−$4	-100%
Will the price of Solana be between $50 and $60 on June 14?	Jun 14	$6	−$6	-100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 11?	Jun 12	$4	−$4	-100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 9?	Jun 10	$4	−$4	-100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 8?	Jun 08	$4	−$4	-100%
Will Ethereum reach $1,900 on June 3?	Jun 04	$2,082	+$4	+0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.00 and $1.10 on June 3?	Jun 03	$2,074	+$6	+0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.40 on June 2?	Jun 02	$2,072	+$4	+0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,850 on June 1?	Jun 02	$2,069	+$4	+0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on June 1?	Jun 01	$2,065	+$4	+0%
Will the price of Solana be between $60 and $70 on May 31?	Jun 01	$2,061	+$4	+0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on May 30?	May 31	$2,057	+$4	+0%
Will the price of Solana be between $60 and $70 on May 28?	May 28	$4	−$4	-100%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,400 and $2,500 on May 27?	May 27	$4	−$4	-100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 on May 24?	May 25	$6	−$6	-100%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on May 23?	May 23	$4	−$4	-100%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on May 21?	May 21	$4	−$4	-100%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,050 on May 18?	May 19	$6	−$6	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Bitcoin reach $62,000 on June 27?	BUY No	100¢	$57	2h
Will Bitcoin reach $63,000 on June 27?	BUY No	100¢	$4	2h
Will Bitcoin reach $63,000 on June 27?	BUY No	100¢	$25	2h
Will Bitcoin reach $63,000 on June 27?	BUY No	100¢	$1,945	2h
Will Bitcoin reach $63,000 on June 27?	BUY No	100¢	$25	2h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 27?	BUY No	100¢	$2,051	19h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 on June 26?	BUY No	100¢	$2,046	25h
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on June 26?	BUY No	100¢	$2,044	45h
Will Ethereum reach $1,700 on June 25?	BUY No	100¢	$2,040	2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 25?	BUY Yes	100¢	$2,036	2d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 17?	BUY No	0¢	$2	10d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 17?	BUY No	0¢	$3	10d
Will the price of Solana be between $50 and $60 on June 14?	BUY Yes	0¢	$6	13d
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 11?	BUY Yes	0¢	$4	16d
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 9?	BUY Yes	0¢	$4	18d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 8?	BUY Yes	0¢	$4	19d
10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?	BUY No	95¢	$5	22d
Will Ethereum reach $1,900 on June 3?	BUY No	100¢	$2,082	24d
Will the price of XRP be between $1.00 and $1.10 on June 3?	BUY No	100¢	$2,074	24d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.40 on June 2?	BUY No	100¢	$2,072	25d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,850 on June 1?	BUY No	100¢	$2,069	26d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on June 1?	BUY No	100¢	$2,065	26d
Will the price of Solana be between $60 and $70 on May 31?	BUY No	100¢	$2,061	27d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on May 30?	BUY No	100¢	$2,057	28d
Will the price of Solana be between $60 and $70 on May 28?	BUY Yes	0¢	$4	30d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,400 and $2,500 on May 27?	BUY Yes	0¢	$4	31d
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 on May 24?	BUY Yes	0¢	$6	34d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on May 23?	BUY No	0¢	$4	35d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on May 21?	BUY No	0¢	$4	37d
Will Ethereum dip to $2,050 on May 18?	BUY Yes	0¢	$6	40d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,064.13 · official $2,064.13 (match) · 43 history records