Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T02:11:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
EF 0xef6b…2b89 world 89 markets active 1h ago coverage 482d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Wins small, loses big
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! loses its big bets
Total PnL +$26 (+0%) realized +$26 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate56%50W / 39L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown68%max
Avg bet$143per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$18est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days−$5
14 days−$5
30 days+$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 36% +$14
sports 22% −$3
other 21% +$14
politics 17% −$3
finance 1% +$1
tech 1% $0
weather 1% +$1
economics 1% +$1
culture 0% $0
crypto 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-2.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -0.3% -9.8% 40% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 32 +12.6% +1.9% 53% 6% -9.3%
≤90d 41 +9.9% -0.6% 49% 5% -9.6%
all 89 +8.1% -2.2% 56% 11% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.2% 11% -9.3%
10% -11.5% 6% -18.0%
15% -20.1% 6% -25.9%
20% -27.9% 6% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early +7% → late +10% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.67 per $1 lost it wins $1.67
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

482d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$26
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses50 / 39
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions0
Markets (closed)89 / 89
History coverage482d
Avg bet$143
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown68%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 89 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $89 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 15 $157 +$2 +1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $168 −$7 -4%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $173 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $114 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 13 $499 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $9 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $88 $0 -0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $179 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 10 $179 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $163 $0 +0%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 09 $163 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $161 +$2 +2%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 08 $345 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $13 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $302 +$1 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $512 −$3 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? May 31 $177 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 31 $105 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 30 $336 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 29 $368 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 29 $176 +$1 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 28 $15 +$2 +12%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 28 $341 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 27 $2 +$1 +65%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 26 $7 $0 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 25 $54 +$2 +3%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 25 $317 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? May 24 $36 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 24 $153 −$3 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 21 $164 +$14 +8%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 21 $6 $0 +0%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 15 $342 +$1 +0%
Will the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (ADMK) win the most Apr 26 $70 +$2 +2%
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the Apr 24 $62 +$2 +4%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 20 $1,817 −$3 -0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 20 $915 −$17 -2%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 19 $915 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $1,006 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 18 $926 −$1 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Apr 17 $184 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on June 30? Dec 09 $11 $0 +3%
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Jun 26 $1 $0 +16%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2025 National League Championshi Jun 24 $27 $0 +1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 19 $1 $0 +3%
Will Ethereum dip to $1400 in May? May 21 $8 $0 +1%
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? May 19 $5 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $150-200b in federal spending in 2025? May 17 $5 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? May 17 $7 +$1 +18%
Will Virgil van Dijk win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? May 15 $2 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $89 1h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $89 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 74¢ $159 34h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 73¢ $91 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 73¢ $66 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $5 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $4 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 33¢ $21 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 33¢ $151 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 33¢ $173 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $63 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $51 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $114 3d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $32 3d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $122 3d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $2 3d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $50 3d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $106 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $9 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $6 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 96¢ $88 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 96¢ $88 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $36 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $121 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $164 4d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $163 4d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $163 4d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $18 6d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $162 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.81 · official $0.00 (match) · 343 history records