Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T06:02:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EF 0xef69…cdbd sports 793 markets active 1h ago coverage 224d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$578 (-5%) realized −$589 · open +$11
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate49%383W / 406L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day5.2pace
Fees−$66est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$41now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$78
7 days−$21
14 days+$8
30 days+$54
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 83% −$752
crypto 11% +$58
other 5% −$21
world 1% +$5
culture 0% −$20
politics 0% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 -6.2% -15.1% 49% 49% -13.6%
≤30d 61 +33.2% +20.5% 51% 51% -3.5%
≤90d 314 +16.7% +5.6% 50% 47% -17.0%
all 789 -1.1% -10.5% 49% 45% -15.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.5% 45% -15.0%
10% -19.1% 40% -23.1%
15% -26.9% 33% -30.6%
20% -34.0% 26% -37.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late +11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$13 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

224d coverage
Net worth$41
Realized−$589
Unrealized+$11
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses383 / 406
Est. fees paid−$66
Open positions3
Markets (closed)789 / 793
History coverage224d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day5.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 789 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Japan 57¢ 100¢ $10 $18 +$8 (+75%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 20¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+20%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $11 +$1 (+13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 378 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $29 −$14 -51%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Jun 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Spread: Netherlands (-3.5) Jun 20 $31 +$57 +186%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 8.5 Jun 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 20 $10 −$7 -64%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $20 −$20 -98%
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula Jun 20 $10 +$1 +12%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 +$7 +68%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 20 $10 −$8 -76%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $10 −$2 -24%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $10 −$10 -99%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 8.5 Jun 20 $10 −$10 -97%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Alexandra Eala Jun 19 $9 −$9 -98%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff Jun 19 $9 +$5 +56%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 3 Winner Jun 19 $20 −$20 -98%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $39 −$8 -21%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $20 −$20 -99%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $10 +$10 +101%
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Jun 18 $10 +$5 +51%
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 1 Winne Jun 18 $10 +$5 +47%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $10 +$5 +51%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $10 +$6 +60%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $10 +$10 +95%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $10 −$10 -99%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo Jun 17 $10 +$6 +56%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner Jun 17 $10 +$5 +48%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $10 +$6 +63%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A Jun 17 $10 +$13 +125%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $10 +$7 +67%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $10 +$5 +50%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 +$4 +44%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $10 −$3 -28%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$24 +238%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $10 +$9 +86%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 14 $10 −$5 -48%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $10 +$3 +34%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $10 −$4 -43%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $10 +$3 +31%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 +$7 +68%
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 3 Winner Jun 09 $10 +$6 +62%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $10 +$9 +86%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 09 $10 +$9 +90%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 14¢ $14 51m
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 27¢ $29 1h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 57¢ $10 1h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 BUY Over $10 11h
Spread: Netherlands (-3.5) SELL Netherlands 95¢ $26 11h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 8.5 BUY Over $10 11h
Spread: Netherlands (-3.5) SELL Netherlands 74¢ $61 11h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) SELL Sweden 20¢ $4 12h
Spread: Netherlands (-3.5) BUY Netherlands 27¢ $31 12h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 42¢ $10 12h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Sweden 54¢ $10 12h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 18¢ $20 13h
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula SELL Aryna Sabalenka 43¢ $11 18h
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula BUY Aryna Sabalenka 37¢ $10 19h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 79¢ $17 25h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 46¢ $10 25h
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) SELL Türkiye $2 25h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 44¢ $8 25h
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) BUY Türkiye 20¢ $10 26h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $10 27h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 57¢ $10 27h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 8.5 BUY Over $10 28h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $10 34h
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Alexandra Eala BUY Elina Svitolina 29¢ $9 36h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff SELL KT Rolster Challengers 70¢ $14 41h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff BUY KT Rolster Challengers 45¢ $9 41h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 Academy 11¢ $10 42h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 Academy 65¢ $10 43h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers $8 43h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner SELL T1 Academy 96¢ $107 43h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40.76 · official $40.76 (match) · 1435 history records