Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T16:21:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
EF 0xef62…cf76 sports 448 markets active 1h ago coverage 73d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$16,314 (+1%) realized +$20,408 · open −$4,094
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -34% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -54% what you keep after slip
Net edge-54%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate33%147W / 299L
Whale WR37%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4,646per market
Trades / day37.5pace
Fees−$27,479est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1,779now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 73d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$434,409
world 0% −$200
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-40.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -7.7% -16.5% 44% 31% -5.7%
≤30d 138 -41.7% -47.2% 29% 25% -40.9%
≤90d 446 -33.8% -40.1% 33% 26% -35.6%
all 446 -33.8% -40.1% 33% 26% -35.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover37.5 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -40.1% 26% -35.6%
10% -45.8% 22% -41.8%
15% ← realistic here -51.0% 18% -47.4%
20% -55.8% 14% -52.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -29% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -34% · $-wt -29% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 37% (≥$4,904) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -28% → late -40% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,751 vs −$2,301 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.37 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

73d coverage
Net worth$1,779
Realized+$20,408
Unrealized−$4,094
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses147 / 299
Whale WR (big bets)37%
Est. fees paid−$27,479
Open positions2
Markets (closed)446 / 448
History coverage73d
Avg bet$4,646
Trades / day37.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 446 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Rune Eaters - Game 2 Winner Nigma Galaxy 62¢ 100¢ $1,100 $1,772 +$672 (+61%)
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Rune Eaters - Game 2 Winner Rune Eaters 38¢ 0¢ $3,600 $5 −$3,595 (-100%)
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MODUS - Game 1 Winner MODUS 15¢ 0¢ $500 $2 −$498 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 190 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Rune Eaters - Game 1 Winner Jun 21 $5,115 +$921 +18%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs OG - Game 2 Winner Jun 21 $8,573 +$1,503 +18%
Dota 2: Enjoy vs Team Bald - Game 1 Winner Jun 21 $1,003 +$108 +11%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs VP.Prodigy - Game 1 Winner Jun 21 $6,939 −$617 -9%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs OG - Game 1 Winner Jun 21 $1,522 −$1,500 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $4,393 −$488 -11%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $123 −$120 -97%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Noir Esports - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $1 $0 -37%
Dota 2: Nande+4 vs Noir Esports (BO3) - European Pro League Group B Jun 17 $1 $0 +0%
Dota 2: Lindorfitos vs x5 Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $1,282 −$110 -9%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $1,756 −$109 -6%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Grey Trac - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $2,105 −$19 -1%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $918 +$1,419 +155%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Spirit Academy (BO3) - European Pro League Grou Jun 17 $1,826 +$738 +40%
Dota 2: Game Master vs Grey Trac - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $205 −$201 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $1 $0 +7%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 13 $12 +$7 +60%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 08 $16,234 −$16,232 -100%
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs GenOne (BO3) - European Pro League Serie Jun 08 $2 +$1 +62%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 08 $8,187 −$3,792 -46%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $10,863 +$6,439 +59%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $3,062 −$3,001 -98%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 07 $13,039 −$4,135 -32%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $1,319 −$115 -9%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $3,144 +$2,776 +88%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 07 $21,478 −$13,638 -64%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $3,139 +$3,325 +106%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $370 −$360 -97%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $21,818 −$17,444 -80%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $2,523 +$1,073 +42%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $1,618 −$1,600 -99%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora - Game 1 Winner Jun 05 $531 −$19 -4%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $8,484 −$6,940 -82%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $10,929 −$5,848 -54%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 05 $10,862 +$16,461 +152%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $10,781 −$10,000 -93%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Game 1 Winner Jun 05 $4,633 +$4,481 +97%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Yandex (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 05 $182 +$139 +76%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Yandex - Game 2 Winner Jun 04 $8,523 +$11,012 +129%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Yandex - Game 1 Winner Jun 04 $68 −$66 -98%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 04 $2,795 −$362 -13%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 04 $4,086 −$4,017 -98%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex - Game 2 Winner Jun 04 $7,825 +$8,138 +104%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex - Game 1 Winner Jun 04 $666 −$62 -9%
Dota 2: Two Move vs MODUS - Game 2 Winner Jun 03 $1 +$1 +76%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - Esports World Cup Western Jun 03 $1,780 −$814 -46%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner Jun 03 $4,096 +$856 +21%
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs Sharks (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 03 $2,214 +$4,737 +214%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner Jun 02 $2 −$1 -45%
Dota 2: Poor Rangers vs Team G - Game 1 Winner Jun 02 $2,534 +$573 +23%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MODUS - Game 1 Winner BUY MODUS 15¢ $513 54m
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Rune Eaters - Game 2 Winner BUY Nigma Galaxy 40¢ $305 1h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Rune Eaters - Game 2 Winner BUY Rune Eaters 58¢ $1,012 1h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Rune Eaters - Game 2 Winner BUY Rune Eaters 32¢ $306 2h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Rune Eaters - Game 2 Winner BUY Rune Eaters 28¢ $306 2h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Rune Eaters - Game 2 Winner BUY Nigma Galaxy 78¢ $805 2h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Rune Eaters - Game 2 Winner BUY Rune Eaters 38¢ $407 2h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Rune Eaters - Game 2 Winner BUY Rune Eaters 29¢ $306 2h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Rune Eaters - Game 2 Winner BUY Rune Eaters 50¢ $305 2h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Rune Eaters - Game 2 Winner BUY Rune Eaters 34¢ $1,020 2h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Rune Eaters - Game 1 Winner BUY Rune Eaters 20¢ $51 3h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Rune Eaters - Game 1 Winner BUY Nigma Galaxy 71¢ $1,009 3h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Rune Eaters - Game 1 Winner BUY Nigma Galaxy 65¢ $1,010 3h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Rune Eaters - Game 1 Winner BUY Nigma Galaxy 69¢ $1,009 3h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Rune Eaters - Game 1 Winner BUY Rune Eaters 33¢ $5 3h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Rune Eaters - Game 1 Winner BUY Nigma Galaxy 61¢ $1,012 3h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Rune Eaters - Game 1 Winner BUY Rune Eaters 39¢ $1,018 3h
Dota 2: GLYPH vs OG - Game 2 Winner BUY GLYPH 0¢ $10 4h
Dota 2: GLYPH vs OG - Game 2 Winner BUY OG 96¢ $2,002 4h
Dota 2: GLYPH vs OG - Game 2 Winner BUY OG 66¢ $1,010 4h
Dota 2: GLYPH vs OG - Game 2 Winner BUY GLYPH 62¢ $1,012 4h
Dota 2: GLYPH vs OG - Game 2 Winner BUY OG 47¢ $813 4h
Dota 2: GLYPH vs OG - Game 2 Winner BUY GLYPH 55¢ $1,013 4h
Dota 2: GLYPH vs OG - Game 2 Winner BUY OG 55¢ $1,041 5h
Dota 2: GLYPH vs OG - Game 2 Winner BUY OG 57¢ $1,094 5h
Dota 2: GLYPH vs OG - Game 2 Winner BUY OG 56¢ $578 5h
Dota 2: Enjoy vs Team Bald - Game 1 Winner BUY Enjoy 90¢ $1,003 5h
Dota 2: GLYPH vs OG - Game 1 Winner BUY GLYPH 50¢ $508 6h
Dota 2: GLYPH vs OG - Game 1 Winner BUY GLYPH 50¢ $508 6h
Dota 2: GLYPH vs OG - Game 1 Winner BUY GLYPH 50¢ $508 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,778.65 · official $1,778.65 (match) · 3017 history records