Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T07:12:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EF 0xef62…8e79 other 48 markets active 1h ago coverage 222d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$2,806 (-34%) realized −$2,806 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate94%45W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$170per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$150now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 47% −$2,750
politics 19% +$10
other 16% −$1
tech 10% +$4
crypto 6% −$71
world 2% +$1
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 4 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 24 -3.9% -13.0% 96% 0% -11.6%
all 48 -3.2% -12.4% 94% 6% -40.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.4% 6% -40.7%
10% -20.8% 4% -46.4%
15% -28.5% 4% -51.5%
20% -35.5% 2% -56.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 93% · top 2 95% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -34% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$1,047 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.11 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

222d coverage
Net worth$150
Realized−$2,806
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)94%
Wins / losses45 / 3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)48 / 48
History coverage222d
Avg bet$170
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 48 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 28 $150 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 26 $150 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 23 $148 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 18 $151 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET May 23 $75 −$75 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET May 23 $100 +$2 +2%
Will Donald Trump post 0-19 Truth Social posts from May 19 to May 26, May 22 $146 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump post 20-39 Truth Social posts from May 19 to May 26, May 22 $79 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $5,000 by December 31, 2026? May 16 $30 $0 +1%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of May 11 above $185? May 16 $190 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 12 $190 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from April 28 to May 5, May 06 $150 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump post 0-19 Truth Social posts from April 28 to May 5, May 02 $184 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? Apr 29 $189 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Apr 23 $50 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump post 0-19 Truth Social posts from April 21 to April Apr 23 $55 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump post 80-99 Truth Social posts from April 10 to April Apr 19 $56 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $168 Week of April 13 2026? Apr 19 $120 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from April 3 to April 1 Apr 16 $180 +$1 +0%
Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from March 31 to Apr Apr 08 $180 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from March 27 to April Apr 05 $188 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from March 24 to March Apr 02 $32 $0 +0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Mar Apr 02 $60 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Apr 02 $100 +$1 +1%
Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from March 13 to Mar Mar 25 $150 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026? Mar 20 $66 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from March 10 to March Mar 20 $96 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? Mar 14 $50 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? Mar 14 $60 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of March 2 above $155? Mar 09 $200 +$1 +1%
Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of February 23 above $110? Mar 05 $65 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of February 23 above $165? Mar 05 $68 +$1 +1%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close at <$165 on the final day of trading of the w Mar 05 $80 +$1 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from February 13 to February 20, 20 Feb 25 $71 +$1 +1%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of February 16 above $155? Feb 25 $80 $0 +0%
Government shutdown on Saturday? Feb 19 $12 +$8 +61%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 20 Feb 19 $61 $0 +0%
US strikes Iran by February 11, 2026? Feb 14 $55 $0 +0%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 8, 2026 (ET)? Feb 11 $70 +$1 +1%
US strikes Iran by February 4, 2026? Feb 08 $10 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Rese Feb 03 $30 $0 +1%
Sabres vs. Stars Jan 30 $10 $0 +0%
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? Jan 30 $99 +$1 +1%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-01-01? Jan 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2025-12-27? Dec 28 $5 +$1 +22%
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap Dec 09 $99 +$1 +1%
Grizzlies vs. Spurs Nov 21 $690 +$310 +45%
Raptors vs. 76ers Nov 19 $3,060 −$3,060 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $150 1h
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $150 41h
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $150 4d
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $148 10d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $151 26d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $75 36d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $100 36d
Will Donald Trump post 0-19 Truth Social posts from May 19 to May 26, SELL No 100¢ $117 41d
Will Donald Trump post 20-39 Truth Social posts from May 19 to May 26, BUY No 100¢ $79 42d
Will Donald Trump post 0-19 Truth Social posts from May 19 to May 26, BUY No 100¢ $146 42d
Will Bitcoin dip to $5,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $30 42d
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of May 11 above $185? BUY Yes 100¢ $190 47d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $190 53d
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from April 28 to May 5, BUY No 100¢ $150 56d
Will Donald Trump post 0-19 Truth Social posts from April 28 to May 5, BUY No 100¢ $184 59d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $189 65d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $50 69d
Will Donald Trump post 0-19 Truth Social posts from April 21 to April BUY No 100¢ $55 69d
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $168 Week of April 13 2026? BUY No 100¢ $120 73d
Will Donald Trump post 80-99 Truth Social posts from April 10 to April BUY No 100¢ $56 73d
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from April 3 to April 1 BUY No 100¢ $180 81d
Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from March 31 to Apr BUY No 100¢ $180 84d
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from March 27 to April BUY No 100¢ $188 87d
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from March 24 to March BUY No 100¢ $32 92d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Mar BUY No 100¢ $60 95d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March BUY Yes 99¢ $100 95d
Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from March 13 to Mar BUY No 100¢ $150 99d
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from March 10 to March BUY No 100¢ $96 104d
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $66 105d
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $60 110d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $150.26 · official $150.26 (match) · 111 history records