Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T00:17:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
EF 0xef61…d079 politics 11 markets active 2h ago coverage 251d
RISKYcopy with care politics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate12%1W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$148per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$404now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$3
14 days−$3
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 96% −$3
other 4% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-15.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -9.6% -18.2% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 6 -9.6% -18.2% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 6 -9.6% -18.2% 0% 0% -9.8%
all 8 -6.3% -15.2% 12% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.2% 0% -9.8%
10% -23.3% 0% -18.4%
15% -30.7% 0% -26.3%
20% -37.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.05 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

251d coverage
Net worth$404
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses1 / 7
Open positions3
Markets (closed)8 / 11
History coverage251d
Avg bet$148
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $209 $208 −$0 (-0%)
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $179 $179 −$0 (-0%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 90¢ 90¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $198 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $3 −$1 -21%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $179 $0 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $2 $0 -17%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $387 −$1 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $2 $0 -19%
Trump abolishes the Federal Income Tax in 2025? Dec 19 $19 $0 +1%
Will Abdel Fattah el-Sisi be the first leader out in 2025? Oct 15 $49 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $209 1h
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $198 1h
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 2h
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 4h
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $179 5h
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $179 6h
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 7h
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 9h
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 9h
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $179 10h
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $188 11h
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 18h
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $189 20h
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $198 22h
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $198 24h
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $198 27h
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $208 28h
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $179 29h
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 30h
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $179 31h
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 33h
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $209 34h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 90¢ $15 185d
Trump abolishes the Federal Income Tax in 2025? SELL No 100¢ $17 185d
Trump abolishes the Federal Income Tax in 2025? BUY No 99¢ $19 222d
Will Abdel Fattah el-Sisi be the first leader out in 2025? SELL No 100¢ $49 250d
Will Abdel Fattah el-Sisi be the first leader out in 2025? BUY No 100¢ $49 250d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $403.84 · official $403.84 (match) · 28 history records