Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T00:31:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

EF
0xef5d…d9b5
crypto · 293 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$4 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$2 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$358
Realized−$2
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses253 / 36
Open positions4
Markets (closed)289 / 293
History coverage196d
Avg bet$82
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 4 History 289 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$11
7 days+$46
14 days+$53
30 days+$117
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on June 14? No 99¢ 99¢ $170 $171 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 14? No 95¢ 92¢ $100 $97 −$3 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 14? No 96¢ 96¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 14? No 98¢ 100¢ $39 $40 +$1 (+2%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 12, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Up 77¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 8, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Down 77¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 12, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Down 96¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 6, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Down 80¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 13, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Down 83¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - December 12, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Up 91¢ 0¢ $84 $0 −$84 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 12, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Down 20¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 13, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Up 44¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 13, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Down 17¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 5, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Down 73¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 3, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Up 75¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 4, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Up 62¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 11, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Up 92¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 9°C or higher on April 23? No 90¢ 0¢ $91 $0 −$91 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 26°C on April 21? No 96¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - December 16, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Down 99¢ 0¢ $195 $0 −$195 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 4, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Down 78¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 30, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Down 87¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 13, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Down 94¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 4, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Down 49¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 13? Jun 13 $50 +$2 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $150 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $50 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $100 −$4 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C or higher on June 13? Jun 13 $100 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $150 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $70 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $150 +$3 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C or higher on June 11? Jun 11 $150 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 11? Jun 11 $50 +$3 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 27°C on June 11? Jun 11 $200 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 31°C on June 10? Jun 10 $100 +$4 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C or higher on June 10? Jun 10 $100 +$3 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 30°C on June 9? Jun 09 $100 +$3 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 9? Jun 09 $200 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 8? Jun 08 $195 +$6 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on June 8? Jun 08 $200 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C or higher on June 7? Jun 07 $200 +$7 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on June 7? Jun 07 $180 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on June 6? Jun 06 $200 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on June 6? Jun 06 $100 −$15 -15%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on June 5? Jun 05 $195 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 5? Jun 05 $200 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 3? Jun 04 $100 +$4 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 26°C on June 3? Jun 03 $250 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 3? Jun 02 $140 −$3 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on June 2? Jun 02 $170 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 2? Jun 02 $150 +$3 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 16°C on June 1? Jun 01 $200 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on May 31? Jun 01 $200 +$3 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on May 31? Jun 01 $180 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on May 30? May 30 $100 +$5 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 16°C on May 30? May 30 $200 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on May 29? May 29 $30 +$2 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on May 29? May 29 $40 +$3 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 13°C on May 29? May 29 $160 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 13°C on May 28? May 29 $100 +$5 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C or higher on May 28? May 28 $10 +$5 +49%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on May 27? May 28 $130 +$4 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 16°C on May 27? May 28 $165 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 36°C on May 26? May 27 $50 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 16°C on May 26? May 27 $150 +$5 +3%
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on May 23? May 24 $100 +$3 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on May 23? May 23 $170 +$3 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 27°C on May 22? May 22 $50 +$4 +9%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on May 21? May 21 $60 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 27°C on May 21? May 21 $100 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 26°C on May 21? May 21 $170 +$3 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on May 20? May 20 $150 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET May 19 $20 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 64% +$131
crypto 35% −$135
sports 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 14? BUY No 96¢ $50 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 14? BUY No 95¢ $100 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 14? SELL No 97¢ $109 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 14? BUY No 98¢ $150 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $53 1h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $170 15h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $51 15h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C or higher on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $103 15h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $150 21h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 13? SELL No 88¢ $45 21h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C or higher on June 13? BUY No 97¢ $100 21h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 30°C on June 13? BUY No 96¢ $50 37h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 13? BUY No 98¢ $100 37h
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 13? BUY No 95¢ $50 37h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 28°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $72 37h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $154 37h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 28°C on June 12? BUY No 97¢ $70 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on June 12? BUY No 98¢ $150 2d
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 12? BUY No 99¢ $150 2d
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C or higher on June 11? SELL No 100¢ $151 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 11? SELL No 100¢ $53 2d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 27°C on June 11? SELL No 100¢ $202 2d
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C or higher on June 11? BUY No 99¢ $150 3d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 11? BUY No 93¢ $50 3d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 27°C on June 11? BUY No 99¢ $200 3d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C or higher on June 10? SELL No 100¢ $103 3d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 31°C on June 10? BUY No 96¢ $100 4d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 9? SELL No 100¢ $203 4d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C or higher on June 10? BUY No 97¢ $100 4d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 30°C on June 9? BUY No 97¢ $100 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +2.2% -7.5% 95% 0% -7.8%
≤30d 54 +2.8% -7.0% 94% 2% -8.0%
≤90d 134 -0.2% -9.7% 91% 3% -9.1%
all 289 -0.6% -10.0% 88% 16% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 16% -9.5%
10% -18.7% 8% -18.2%
15% -26.5% 5% -26.1%
20% -33.7% 2% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $358.00 · official $358.00 (match) · 668 history records